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5/5 Trade Plan

5/5/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 7,274 / Bearish below 7,211
Theme: Demand holding → testing prior rejection → breakout vs repeat failure

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Yesterday’s key demand 7,211–7,223 held again, and we’ve bounced back into 7,265–7,274, the same rejection zone.

That’s the decision:

Buyers are still defending dips
But 7,274 hasn’t been cleared yet
Market is stuck between strong demand and stubborn supply

Key idea:

7,211 holds → bullish
7,274 clears → continuation
Reject again → range continues

(Acct locked until 10 → good, avoids the early fake moves here)

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,223–7,211 — demand / higher low
7,180 — next support

🟥 Resistance
7,265–7,274 — rejection zone
7,300 — breakout target

🟢 A+ Setup — Demand Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 7,223–7,211

Trigger
Pullback into demand
Buyers defend / higher low

Targets
7,265
7,274

Stop
Acceptance below 7,200

Notes:
👉 This is still the cleanest trade
👉 Proven level

🔴 A+ Setup — Rejection at 7,274

Zone: 7,265–7,274

Trigger
Push into resistance
Weak continuation / rejection

Targets
7,230
7,211

Stop
Acceptance above 7,285

Notes:
👉 Same trade as yesterday
👉 Works until it doesn’t

🟢 A Setup — Breakout Above 7,274

Zone: Above 7,274

Trigger
Break and HOLD above

Targets
7,300

Stop
Loss of 7,255

Notes:
👉 Only if it proves
👉 Don’t anticipate

🔴 A Setup — Breakdown Below 7,211

Zone: Below 7,211

Trigger
Loss of demand
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,180
7,120

Stop
Reclaim above 7,230

Notes:
👉 Real downside only starts here

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 7,211 or 7,274
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No middle trades

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No chasing into 7,274
🚫 No trading middle
🚫 No early trades (you already handled this 👍)

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a repeat test → not a new idea
Don’t get bored and force it
Let the level prove itself
One clean trade → done

SPY (30MIN)

Good pullback into key demand between 715.80/716.87. If we can create a higher low there, SPY can maintain. Need to see a reclaim of the 720.50 spot. Cautious of this 720 spot turning into a lower high rejection spot. Reclaim is very important here. If we break below 715.80, we get a move lower towards 712.88.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.