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5/29Trade Plan

5/29/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES

Bias: Bullish above 7582 / Expansion above ATH
Market Condition: Trend Continuation / Fib Extension Expansion

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues holding inside higher timeframe breakout structure after making fresh ATHs overnight at 7595.75. Current price action is compressing just beneath ATH resistance while maintaining higher lows above the 38.2% extension support at 7582.25. Main thesis today is continuation higher if buyers maintain acceptance above 7582 and reclaim ATHs with strength. A deeper pullback into 7561 remains possible, but as long as price holds above the 38–50% retrace structure, the market remains in bullish expansion mode.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Pullback Zones

7582.25 (38.2 extension hold)
7569.75 (ATH rejection zone)
7561.25 (A+ break/retest long)
7550.50 (50% retrace reference)
7505.50 (major support / prior low)

🟥 Resistance / Upside Extensions

7595.75 (ATH)
7606.25 (50% fib extension)
7616.75 (61.8 extension)
7629.95 (76.4 extension)
7651.25 (100% extension)

⭐ Prime Setup

Trigger: Hold above 7582.25, reclaim ATH resistance, acceptance above 7597
Target 1: 7606.25
Target 2: 7616.75
Runner: 7629.95 → 7651.25

Stop: 30m acceptance below 7578

Invalidation: Failure back below extension support

🟢 A-Tier Setup

Trigger: Pullback into 7561.25, responsive buyers reclaim VWAP
Target 1: 7582.25
Target 2: 7595.75
Runner: 7606+

Stop: 30m acceptance below 7550.50

Invalidation: Failure to hold 50% retrace structure

🟡 B-Tier Setup

Option A — ATH Rejection Short
Trigger: Failed breakout above 7597 / weak acceptance
Target 1: 7582
Target 2: 7561

Stop: Acceptance above 7606

Option B — Deep Pullback Long
Trigger: Flush into 7550–7561 support with responsive buyers
Target 1: 7582
Target 2: 7595

Stop: Acceptance below 7545

🔴 Avoid

Chasing breakouts directly into ATH extensions
Shorting strong acceptance above 7597
Trading inside compression without confirmation
Assuming reversal while above 7561–7550 structure

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

☑️ VWAP aligned
☑️ Delta confirms continuation
☑️ Acceptance above reclaimed ATH
☑️ Break-and-retest structure respected
☑️ No first-touch chasing into extensions

SPY (30 MIN)

SPY continues holding bullish expansion structure above the 754–754.25 support zone after breaking into fresh highs with ES. Holding above 754 keeps continuation active toward 756.40, with extension potential into 757.50–759. Losing 754 opens a deeper pullback toward 752.90–751.80, but overall structure remains bullish above the 50% retrace zone.

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