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5/26 Trade Plan

5/22/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish above 7469 / Neutral below 7469
Market Condition: Trend / Overnight Expansion

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continued higher overnight after reclaiming the prior breakout structure and is now trading firmly above the Wednesday high at 7483.75. Overnight buyers pushed aggressively into the 7560s before pulling back slightly into pre-market consolidation. Current structure remains bullish, but price is now extended from major demand, increasing the odds of rotational pullbacks before continuation. Key intraday focus is whether buyers can maintain acceptance above 7469–7475 after the overnight expansion.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Pullback Zones

7551–7532 (overnight pullback support)
7483.75 (Wednesday high reclaim)
7475.75
7469.5 (major pivot)
7370.75–7363.25 (major demand)

🟥 Resistance / Liquidity Above

7569.75 (overnight high)
7600 psychological
7613.5 projected resistance
7649 projected extension

⭐ Prime Setup

Trigger: Pullback into 7532–7551 holds with responsive buyers and VWAP reclaim
Target 1: 7569.75
Target 2: 7600
Runner: 7613.5

Stop: 30m acceptance below 7525

Invalidation: Failure to reclaim VWAP after pullback

🟢 A-Tier Setup

Trigger: Acceptance above overnight high (7569.75)
Target 1: 7600
Target 2: 7613.5
Runner: 7649

Stop: Loss of 7555 after breakout

Invalidation: Failed breakout back below overnight high

🟡 B-Tier Setup

Option A — Exhaustion Fade
Trigger: Sharp rejection from 7569–7600 liquidity
Target 1: 7550
Target 2: 7532

Stop: Acceptance above 7600

Option B — Deep Pullback Long
Trigger: Flush into 7483.75–7469.5 with responsive buyers
Target 1: 7532
Target 2: 7560

Stop: 30m acceptance below 7460

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into overnight highs
Shorting strong acceptance above 7569
Mid-range chop between 7535–7555
Emotional open trades after overnight expansion

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

☑️ VWAP aligned
☑️ Delta confirms continuation
☑️ Acceptance above reclaimed highs
☑️ Responsive buyers at pullback zones
☑️ No first-touch chasing into liquidity

SPY (30 MIN)

Two spot to look for higher lows today. First one is the 744/743.50 demand, that would be the more aggressive hold. That would be a hold over PDH & some Friday highs from last week. If we fail here, we likely trade back towards the Monday highs at 741/740. This would be the demand I'd like to see hold to remain in a higher low trend. Failing 740, we trade back into PDL at 738. Looks like this 747 supply is going to be the next level to beat.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.