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5/22 Trade Plan

5/22/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish above 7470 / Cautious after pre-market expansion
Market Condition: Expansion / Extended pre-market rally

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continued aggressive overnight continuation and pushed through the 7500 psychological level before cash open. Price is now trading directly into stacked overhead liquidity zones between 7508 → 7540, which increases the probability of either responsive selling or deeper rotational pullbacks after the open. The cleanest long opportunity now requires patience for pullback support rather than chasing highs into extension. As long as 7470 holds, bullish structure remains intact, but much of the easy upside may already be priced into pre-market positioning.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

7470.25–7464.25 (primary pullback long zone)
7438–7427 (IBH support zone)
7425–7408 (major support)
7336 (deep support)

🟥 Resistance / Supply

7508–7512 (liquidity zone)
7526–7531 (liquidity zone)
7537–7540 (ATH liquidity)

⭐ Prime Setup

Trigger: Pullback into 7470.25–7464.25 with responsive buyers and VWAP reclaim
Target 1: 7508–7512
Target 2: 7526–7531
Runner: 7537–7540

Stop: 30m acceptance below 7460

Invalidation: Failure to reclaim VWAP after pullback

🟢 A-Tier Setup

Trigger: Acceptance above 7512 after liquidity clears
Target 1: 7526–7531
Target 2: 7537–7540

Stop: Loss of 7500 after breakout

Invalidation: Failed breakout back into prior liquidity zone

🟡 B-Tier Setup

Option A — Exhaustion Rejection Short
Trigger: Sharp rejection at 7526–7540 liquidity
Target 1: 7508
Target 2: 7470

Stop: Acceptance above ATH

Option B — Deeper Pullback Long
Trigger: Flush into 7438–7427 with responsive buyers
Target 1: 7470
Target 2: 7500

Stop: 30m acceptance below 7420

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into stacked liquidity overhead
Shorting strong acceptance above 7512
Trading emotional open volatility without confirmation
Forcing trades in mid-range rotation after morning expansion

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

☑️ VWAP aligned
☑️ Delta confirms continuation
☑️ Acceptance above reclaimed levels
☑️ Responsive buyers at pullback zones
☑️ No first-touch chasing into liquidity

SPY (30 MIN)

Two spot to look for higher lows today. First one is the 744/743.50 demand, that would be the more aggressive hold. That would be a hold over PDH & some Friday highs from last week. If we fail here, we likely trade back towards the Monday highs at 741/740. This would be the demand I'd like to see hold to remain in a higher low trend. Failing 740, we trade back into PDL at 738. Looks like this 747 supply is going to be the next level to beat.

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