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5/21 Trade Plan

5/21/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Neutral–Bullish above 7,406 / Bearish below 7,406
Market Condition: Range / Post-Earnings Expansion Risk

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Post-NVDA structure remains rotational but is now anchored around a key macro pivot at 7450. Above this level, market opens into trend continuation targeting prior highs and potential expansion. Below 7450, ES is more likely to rotate within yesterday’s range with two-way trade conditions. Demand remains layered at 7412 and 7400, with deeper support into the 7350–7341 (20DMA) zone. Overall structure favors upside continuation only if 7450 is reclaimed and held.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Liquidity Below

7376 (primary liquidity / demand sweep level)
7370 (secondary flush extension)
7356 (range repair zone)
7341 (20DMA)

🟥 Resistance / Liquidity Above

7463 (key breakout acceptance level)
7469 (liquidity / rejection zone)
7475.75
7483.75 (swing high)

⭐ Prime Setup (Best Trade)

Trigger: Flush into 7376–7400, sweep liquidity, reclaim + hold VWAP
Target 1: 7400
Target 2: 7424
Runner: 7463

Stop: 30m acceptance below 7370

Invalidation: Failure to reclaim VWAP after sweep

🟢 A-Tier Setup (Break & Hold Long)

Trigger: Reclaim and acceptance above 7463 with structure holding
Target 1: 7469
Target 2: 7475.75
Runner: 7483.75

Stop: Loss of 7463 after acceptance

Invalidation: Failed breakout back into 7450s range

🟡 B-Tier Setup (Rejection Trades)

Option A — Breakout Continuation Short (Low Priority)
Trigger: Rejection at 7469–7475 zone
Target 1: 7450
Target 2: 7430-7412

Stop: Acceptance above 7483

Option B — Weak Flush Reaction
Trigger: Failed bounce at 7376 (no reclaim)
Target 1: 7356
Target 2: 7341

Stop: Reclaim above 7385

🔴 Avoid

Mid-range chop between 7412–7450
Chasing breakouts without acceptance above 7450
Heavy shorting in bullish regime above 7450
Low-volume rotational scalps inside VWAP chop zones

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

☑️ VWAP aligned
☑️ Delta confirms direction
☑️ Acceptance at level (not wick reaction)
☑️ Liquidity sweep + reaction
☑️ No first-touch chasing

SPY (30 MIN)

SPY held demand at 730.56 after a pre-market dip to 730.15, confirming buyers are still defending the lower end of the range. We’re now attempting to stabilize above that low, with 730 acting as the key line in the sand for continuation. If buyers maintain control above 730–732, rotation back toward 740–744 remains in play, but upside is layered with resistance so expect scalp-driven movement. A clean break and acceptance below 730 opens a deeper move toward the 728 20DMA, otherwise this stays a two-way range with fade opportunities at extremes.

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