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5/20 Trade Plan

5/20/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral above 7,393 / Bearish below 7,354
Theme: Tight range ahead of NVDA earnings→ scalp conditions, not trend conditions

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to compress into a tightening range ahead of NVDA earnings. The important shift today: Yesterday’s weak structure improved slightly because buyers defended:

7,354–7,363

That now becomes the major line in the sand.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,393–7,400 — primary intraday support
7,354–7,363 — line in the sand
7,320 / 20DMA — major support
7,274 — deeper downside

🟥 Resistance
7,413 — overnight high
7,454 — major resistance
7,475–7,483 — overhead supply

🟢 A+ Setup — Support Hold at 7,393–7,400 (Primary)

Zone: 7,393–7,400

Trigger
Pullback into support
Buyers defend / higher low forms

Targets
7,413
7,454

Stop Acceptance below 7,385

Notes:
👉 Best trade structure today
👉 Demand scalp, not swing trade

🟢 A+ Setup — 20DMA Reaction Long (Full System Trade SPX, SPY, ES)

Zone: 7,320

Trigger
Flush lower into 20DMA
Strong reclaim / responsive buyers

Targets
7,354
7,393

Stop Acceptance below 7,300

Notes:
👉 Best higher timeframe RR setup
👉 Likely emotional flush location

🔴 A Setup — Breakdown Below 7,354

Zone: Below 7,354

Trigger
Loss of Tuesday lows
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,320
7,274

Stop Reclaim above 7,375

Notes:
👉 Only clean short structure today
👉 Momentum likely accelerates below PDL

🔴 B+ Setup — Rejection at 7,413

Zone: 7,413

Trigger
Push into highs
Weak continuation / rejection

Targets
7,393
7,354

Stop Acceptance above 7,430

Notes:
👉 Lower quality because upside structure messy
👉 Faster trade only

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 7,400 or 7,354
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing highs into resistance

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No breakout FOMO
🚫 No random shorts above support
🚫 No oversized positions ahead of NVDA ER

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a scalp environment
Tight ranges punish greed
Take base hits
Strong traders survive chop by trading LESS

SPY (30 MIN)

Held right at our demand low between 731.70/732.56. Perfect low & strong bounce. TOday, we are reclaiming the Wednesday low at 735.47. If we can maintain above that previous low, we can continue higher. Upside targets are tough, multiple highs to be cautious of, look for scalps today. Fail below 735.47 puts us back within yesterday's trading range.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.