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5/19 Trade Plan

5/19/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Bearish below 7,363 / Bullish only on strong support reaction
Theme: Weak structure overhead → cleaner downside map

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to trade in a very inconsistent structure. There’s no clean overhead rejection zone besides: 7480

Outside of that, price is mostly trading inside unstable ranges without strong continuation structure.

The cleaner side of the market today is actually underneath price:

7,370 = key support
7,363 = breakdown trigger
then downside opens into:
- 7,340
- 7,320
- 20DMA

The important thing here: A pullback into the 20DMA after this extended move would actually be healthy. This is NOT an environment to aggressively chase longs in the middle.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,370 — key demand
7,363 — breakdown trigger
7,340–7,320 — downside support
20DMA — major higher timeframe support
7,270 — deeper downside target

🟥 Resistance
7,480 — primary rejection level

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 7,363 (Primary)

Zone: Below 7,363

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,340
7,320
20DMA

Stop Reclaim above 7,385

Notes:
👉 Cleanest structure on the board
👉 Best momentum opportunity today

🟢 B+ Setup — Reaction Long at 7,370

Zone: 7,370

Trigger
Flush into support
Strong reclaim / responsive buyers

Targets
7,420
7,480

Stop Acceptance below 7,355

Notes:
👉 Scalp setup only
👉 Need VERY obvious buyer response

🔴 B+ Setup — Rejection at 7,480

Zone: 7,480

Trigger
Push into resistance
Weak continuation / rejection

Targets
7,420
7,370

Stop Acceptance above 7,500

Notes:
👉 Only clear rejection zone overhead
👉 Better if tape weakens into level

🟢 B Setup — 20DMA Pullback Long

Zone: 20DMA area

Trigger
Emotional flush lower
Strong reclaim / stabilization

Targets
7,320
7,370

Stop Acceptance below 20DMA

Notes:
👉 Bigger picture support reaction
👉 Higher timeframe opportunity

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 7,363 or 7,480
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing inside chop

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No forcing longs in weak structure
🚫 No trading middle
🚫 No emotional breakout chasing

🧠 Mindset Notes

Weak structure creates fake moves
Patience matters more than prediction today
If the setup isn’t obvious → skip it
One clean trade → done

SPY (30 MIN)

Too much sideways chop to have levels within yesterday's price action. Only key spot I see here is the 731.70 lows from last Tuesday. That will be a major hold spot. If we fail below, we could see the fail towards 728.50/727.80. Below that, we have the clean 20DMA at 725. A great spot.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.