Unlock exclusive discounts on trading tools!

5/18 Trade Plan

5/18/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15m
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 7,420 / Bearish below 7,363
Theme: Friday range retest → reclaim or rejection

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES is sitting at an important decision point after Friday’s weakness. The key level today is:

Friday LOD at 7,420.25

That level determines whether:

ES rotates back into Friday’s range
OR
sellers maintain control toward lower support

Important nuance:

Even if ES reclaims 7,420, price may become choppy because: reclaiming Friday LOD puts us BACK inside Friday’s range.

That means:

continuation may not be clean
price could rotate both ways
patience matters more than prediction today

Below 7,420, downside pressure remains active toward:

7,370–7,363
then potentially 7,320
and eventually 7,300 / 20DMA

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,370–7,363 — major support
7,320 — downside target
7,300 / 20DMA — deeper support

🟥 Resistance
7,420 — Friday LOD reclaim
7,475 — Friday rejection highs

🟢 B+ Setup — Reclaim Above 7,420

Zone: Above 7,420

Trigger
Break and HOLD above Friday LOD
Acceptance back inside Friday’s range

Targets
7,475

Stop Loss of 7,400

Notes:
👉 Scalp continuation only
👉 Expect chop inside Friday range

🔴 A+ Setup — Rejection at 7,420 (Primary)

Zone: 7,420

Trigger
Retest into resistance
Weak reclaim / rejection

Targets
7,370
7,363

Stop Acceptance above 7,435

Notes:
👉 Best trade structure today
👉 Aligns with current momentum

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 7,363

Zone: Below 7,363

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,320
7,300

Stop Reclaim above 7,385

Notes:
👉 Cleanest momentum move on the board
👉 Opens larger downside rotation

🟢 B Setup — Deep Pullback Reaction Long

Zone: 7,320–7,300

Trigger
Flush lower into support
Strong reclaim / responsive buyers

Targets
7,363
7,420

Stop Acceptance below 7,285

Notes:
👉 Counter-trend setup
👉 Only if reaction is obvious

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,420 or 7,363
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing inside Friday range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No trading middle
🚫 No emotional longs below 7,420
🚫 No forcing trades inside chop

🧠 Mindset Notes

Choppy ranges punish overtrading
Clean trades come from extremes
If it’s messy → wait
One clean trade → done

SPY (15 MIN)

If we turn Friday LOD into rejections at 738, the SPY could stay weak here. I would need to see a reclaim of 738 for the bulls to win control. Over 738, we likely just trade within Friday's chop range, don't love the long for much more than a scalp. Right now, we are holding Wednesday lows at 735.47, below that, we trade to the overnight low & possibly the 732 demand.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.