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5/15 Trade Plan

5/15/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15m / 30m Context
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 7,454 / Bearish below 7,433
Theme: Extended market testing breakout support

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES is now testing the first meaningful pullback after the breakout run. : ATH: 7,540 ,ONL: 7,431

7,433 → 7,454 This zone matters because it combines:
Tuesday HOD
Monday HOD
Previous breakout resistance
Overnight structure

If buyers reclaim and hold above 7,454, ES likely pushes back toward:

7,483
7,493
potentially retesting 7,540

If 7,433 fails:

downside opens quickly into 7,400
then potentially 7,370

Key thing here:
The market is still bullish structurally… but it is now extended enough that failed reclaims matter.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,454 — key reclaim level
7,433 — line in the sand
7,400 — downside target
7,370 — deeper support

🟥 Resistance
7,483–7,493 — overhead supply
7,540 — overnight high

🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim & Hold Above 7,454 (Primary)

Zone: 7,454

Trigger
Break back above support
Acceptance and hold

Targets
7,483
7,493
7,540

Stop Acceptance below 7,440

Notes:
👉 Best trade today
👉 Market needs to prove buyers still control trend

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 7,433

Zone: Below 7,433

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,400
7,370

Stop Reclaim above 7,454

Notes:
👉 Cleanest downside setup
👉 Likely fast rotation lower

🟢 B+ Setup — Deep Pullback Reaction Long

Zone: 7,400–7,370

Trigger
Flush into support
Strong reclaim / responsive buyers

Targets
7,433
7,454

Stop Acceptance below 7,355

Notes:
👉 Better RR if reached
👉 Counteracts stretched downside

🔴 B+ Setup — Rejection at 7,483–7,493

Zone: 7,483–7,493

Trigger
Push into highs
Weak continuation / failed breakout

Targets
7,454

Stop Acceptance above 7,505

Notes:
👉 ONLY if rejection is obvious
👉 Still counter-trend overall

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,454 or 7,433
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing extension candles

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No emotional breakout chasing
🚫 No random shorts above 7,454
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is now a “prove it” environment
Strong trends still pull back
Let support confirm before committing
One clean trade → done

SPY (15 MIN)

I would want a pullback long at the 740 spot on SPY. Without that, you are slightly extended past the best retest level. If we hold over PDH, we could just continue higher but to setup a proper new entry, wait for that Monday retest.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.