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5/14Trade Plan

5/14/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15m
Bias: Bullish above 7,450 / Bearish below 7,450
Theme: Waiting for the pullback → 7,450 is the key decision level

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES extended overnight, printing a new overnight high at 7,499, with buyers defending the overnight low at 7,470.

That changes the structure slightly:

7,470 = first support / ONL
7,450 = major retest support
7,499 = breakout decision level

The market is strong, but we are now extended again.

Key idea:

Don’t chase highs
Wait for pullback support to prove itself

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,450 — primary retest support
7,427–7,425 — secondary demand
PDL — deeper support

🟥 Resistance
ATH / extension highs

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long at 7,470 (Primary)

Zone: 7,470

Trigger
Pullback into ONL support
Buyers defend / higher low forms

Targets
7,499
7,500+

Stop Acceptance below 7,455

Notes:
👉 Cleanest continuation setup
👉 Best location intraday

🟢 A Setup — Deep Pullback Long

Zone: 7,450

Trigger
Flush into major support
Strong reclaim / buyers step in

Targets
7,470
7,499

Stop Acceptance below 7,435

Notes:
👉 Higher confidence if reached
👉 Strong RR setup

🟢 A Setup — Breakout Above 7,499

Zone: Above 7,499

Trigger
Break and HOLD above overnight highs
No immediate rejection

Targets
Price discovery / extension

Stop Loss of 7,485

Notes:
👉 Only if it proves
👉 No FOMO breakout chasing

🔴 A Setup — Breakdown Below 7,450

Zone: Below 7,450

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,427
PDL

Stop Reclaim above 7,465

Notes:
👉 Real downside only starts here

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,470 or 7,499
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing highs

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No emotional breakout longs
🚫 No random shorts above support
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

The move already happened → now wait for location
Best trade = patience into support
No need to be first
One clean trade → done

SPY (15 MIN)

I would want a pullback long at the 740 spot on SPY. Without that, you are slightly extended past the best retest level. If we hold over PDH, we could just continue higher but to setup a proper new entry, wait for that Monday retest.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.