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5/13 Trade Plan

5/13/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15m
Bias: Bullish above 7,402 / Bearish below 7,402
Theme: Strong recovery → ATH rejection vs pullback continuation

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Yesterday’s hold at 7,363–7,370 was the key. ES filled the SPY gap, recovered hard, and reclaimed the important 7,402–7,410 zone.

That flips the structure:

7,402–7,410 = major support now
7,425–7,427 = higher low support
7,450–7,454 = ATH rejection zone

Right now, ES is stalling at ATH resistance, which is normal after a strong recovery move.

Key idea:

Pullbacks are bullish until 7,402 fails
Above 7,454 = price discovery

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,427–7,425 — higher low support
7,410–7,402 — major reclaimed support

🟥 Resistance
7,450–7,454 — ATH / rejection zone

🟢 A+ Setup — Deep Pullback Long

Zone: 7,410–7,402

Trigger
Flush into reclaimed support
Strong reclaim / buyers step in

Targets
7,425
7,450

Stop Acceptance below 7,390

Notes:
👉 Higher confidence if reached
👉 Key structural level

🔴 B+ Setup — ATH Rejection

Zone: 7,450–7,454

Trigger
Push into highs
Weak continuation / rejection

Targets
7,427
7,410

Stop Acceptance above 7,460

Notes:
👉 Counter-trend trade only
👉 Lower conviction than longs

🟢 A Setup — Breakout Above 7,454

Zone: Above 7,454

Trigger
Break and HOLD above ATH
No immediate rejection

Targets
Price discovery / extension

Stop Loss of 7,440

Notes:
👉 Blue skies above here
👉 Only if it proves

🔴 A Setup — Breakdown Below 7417

Zone: Below 7410

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,370
7,350

Stop Reclaim above 7,420

Notes:
👉 Only downside trade worth taking
👉 Structure shifts here

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,425 or 7,454
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing highs

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No emotional ATH chasing
🚫 No random shorts into support
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

Strong recoveries create emotional chasing
Best trade = pullback into support
Don’t fight bullish structure early
One clean trade → done

SPY (15 MIN)

Right to the gap fill at 731.90, our exact level from yesterday. Pretty damn perfect. Let's look for pullback longs at the 738 level today for the best entry. If we reclaim the 740.79 ATH & turn it into a higher low, we continue higher today.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.