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5/12 Trade Plan

5/12/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15m
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 7,425 / Bearish below 7,402
Theme: Pullback into demand → hold for continuation vs breakdown into range support

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES is pulling back directly into a key demand zone between 7,402–7,410, lining up with:

Overnight lows
Prior premarket support
Thursday HOD (~7,410)

That makes this the decision zone for the day.

Key structure:

7,402–7,410 = support
7,425 = rejection / reclaim level
7,388 = Friday LOD
7,375 = deeper downside target

This is a classic:

Hold demand → continuation
Lose demand → fast rotation lower

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,410–7,402 — primary demand
7,388 — Friday LOD
7,375 — deeper support

🟥 Resistance
7,425 — key reclaim / rejection
7,450 — upside target

🟢 A+ Setup — Demand Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 7,410–7,402

Trigger
Pullback into demand
Buyers defend / higher low forms

Targets
7,425
7,450

Stop Acceptance below 7,395

Notes:
👉 Best trade on the board
👉 Strong confluence zone

🔴 A+ Setup — Rejection at 7,425

Zone: 7,425

Trigger
Push into resistance
Weak continuation / rejection

Targets
7,410
7,388

Stop Acceptance above 7,435

Notes:
👉 Strong reaction level until reclaimed
👉 Clean fade setup

🟢 A Setup — Reclaim Above 7,425

Zone: Above 7,425

Trigger
Break and HOLD above
No immediate rejection

Targets
7,450

Stop Loss of 7,410

Notes:
👉 Most bullish scenario
👉 Opens continuation higher

🔴 A Setup — Breakdown Below 7,402

Zone: Below 7,402

Trigger
Loss of demand
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,388
7,375

Stop Reclaim above 7,415

Notes:
👉 Fast downside potential
👉 Confirms support failure

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,402 or 7,425
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No trading middle
🚫 No chasing breakout candles
🚫 No blind dip buying below support

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a reaction market, not prediction market
Let the levels do the work
Don’t force trades between zones
One clean trade → done

SPY (5 MIN)

We have some gaps to be aware of on the SPY as well. Below 734.29, we could see a gap get filled towards 732. This would be a fail below the Friday LOD. Just something to be aware of. As of now, we remain above the Thursday HOD at 736. As long as we maintain that level, SPY can continue to grind higher. Rejections at 738 will be something to watch as well.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.