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5/1 Trade Plan

5/1/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 7,265 / Bearish below 7,211
Theme: Holding highs → pullback vs breakout decision

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Overnight, ES pushed 7,246 → 7,265 and is now sitting around 7,254, holding near highs.

That tells us:

Buyers are still present
But we are at highs → not a chase zone
Market needs to either pull back or prove breakout

This is not where you get aggressive.

Key idea:

7,265 = breakout trigger
7,223–7,211 = real long zone
Middle = noise

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,223–7,211 — pullback demand (A+ level)

🟥 Resistance
7,265 — breakout level

🔴 A+ Setup — Failed Breakdown Short

Zone: 7,242 → 7,246

Trigger:
Break down to 7,242
Bounce back to ~7,246
FAIL to hold (rejection / lower high)

Targets:
7,200

Stop: Acceptance above 7,25

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long

Zone: 7,197 (liquidity ~7,192)

Trigger:
Flush into 7,197
Liquidity sweep toward 7,192
Strong reclaim / buyers step in

Targets:
7,230
7,265

Stop: Acceptance below 7,185

🟢 A Setup — Breakout Long

Zone: Break above 7,272 → hold 7,264

Trigger:
Break above 7,272
Hold/retest 7,264 as support

Targets:
7,285
7,300

Stop:
Loss of 7,255

Notes:
👉 Only short worth taking
👉 Structure breaks here

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 7,211 or 7,265
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No middle trades

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No chasing highs
🚫 No trading middle
🚫 No forcing entries

🧠 Mindset Notes

You don’t get paid at highs — you get paid at levels
If it doesn’t pull back → you don’t trade
If breakout isn’t clean → you don’t trade
One trade → done

SPY (30MIN)

Need to break the channel high here at 712.29. If we can turn that into support, we try for the 715 highs again. The 709 level continues to hold up. Below PDL, we could see a move aggressive downside move towards 702. Not much below 709 to support us. Higher lows are good for now.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.