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4/27 Trade Plan

4/27/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15m
Bias: Bullish → Bearish below 7,170
Theme: Reclaimed P-ATH → hold above highs for continuation vs fail back into range

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES has reclaimed prior ATH (7,185.75) and is currently holding above it after bouncing from the 7,170 overnight low.

That’s the shift:

7,170 = key hold (ONL + prior high)
7,185 = reclaimed ATH → must hold
Above = push toward 7,208 highs

But… with earnings + FOMC ahead, expect:

👉 Chop near highs before any real move

Key idea:

Above 7,170 → bullish continuation
Below → rotation back into range

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,185 — reclaimed ATH
7,170 — primary hold
7,120 — demand

🟥 Resistance
7,208 — recent high / target

🟢 A+ Setup — Hold Above 7,170 (Primary)

Zone: 7,185–7,170

Trigger
Pullback into support
Clean hold + higher low

Targets 7,208

Stop Acceptance below 7,150

Notes:
👉 This is the trade
👉 Reclaim + hold = continuation

🟢 A Setup — Breakout Toward Highs

Zone: Above 7,208

Trigger
Break and HOLD above highs

Targets Extension (trail)

Stop Loss of 7,180

Notes:
👉 Only if it proves
👉 Expect chop before breakout

🔴 A Setup — Breakdown Below 7,170

Zone: Below 7,170

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,140
7,120

Stop Reclaim above 7,185

Notes:
👉 Clean rotation trade
👉 Back into prior range

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,170 or 7,208
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No chasing near highs
🚫 No trading inside 7,180–7,200 chop
🚫 No early entries

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is reclaim + event week → expect chop
Best trade = hold at support
If it’s not clean → don’t trade
One trade → done

SPY (30MIN)

All eyes on whether SPY can maintain above previous ATH. Watching the 712.30/712.70 zone. For now, we are seeing that become a short term low. If that sticks, we continue higher today back into the overnight high. Below 711.29, you fall back within this channel & turn the previous highs back into failure points.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.