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4/17 Trade Plan

4/17/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15M
Bias: Bullish → Bearish only below 7,046
Theme: Melt-up above ATH → continuation vs exhaustion

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES pushed into new ATH overnight (~7,106) after a steady melt-up, now trading in price discovery well above prior highs (~7,077).

This is no longer a clean breakout—this is extension.

That means:

Less edge chasing longs
Higher probability of pullback / rotation before continuation

Key levels now shift:

7,078–7,070 = prior ATH → first support
7,050 = secondary support
7,046 = breakdown trigger

Key idea:

Above 7,070 → trend intact
Below 7,046 → unwind begins

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,078–7,070 — prior ATH / hold
7,050 — secondary support
7,046 — breakdown trigger

🟥 Resistance
7,106 — overnight high
(Above = continued price discovery)

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 7,078–7,070

Trigger
Pullback into prior ATH
Clean hold + higher low

Targets
7,106
→ extension (trail)

Stop
Acceptance below 7,050

Notes:
👉 This is still the best trade
👉 But needs patience after extension

🟢 B+ Setup — Continuation Break

Zone: Above 7,106

Trigger
Break and HOLD above overnight high

Targets
Price discovery (trail)

Stop
Loss of 7,080

Notes:
👉 Lower probability after melt-up
👉 Don’t chase first push

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 7,046

Zone: Below 7,046

Trigger
Loss of structure
Failed reclaim

Targets
7,000
6,950

Stop
Reclaim above 7,070

Notes:
👉 This is the real shift
👉 Melt-up → unwind move

🔴 B+ Setup — Failed Breakout at Highs

Zone: 7,100–7,106

Trigger
Push into highs
Sharp rejection

Targets
7,070
7,050

Stop
Acceptance above 7,120

Notes:
👉 Quick reaction trade only
👉 Don’t overstay

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,070 or 7,106
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing extended moves

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No chasing above ATH
🚫 No shorting blindly
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is extension → not clean breakout
Best trade = pullback, not continuation
If it doesn’t pull back → let it go
One clean trade → you’re done

SPY (15MIN)

Holding above 702 will be the key today. If we maintain, you continue grinding higher. Below 701.58, you may see the 700 demand zone again. Strong holds between 699.26/700.28. Also a clean bear trap at the lows yesterday, definitely a lot of buying absorption at those lows. Pullback long market seems to be the right look.

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