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4/16 Trade Plan

4/16/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15M
Bias: Bullish → Bearish only below 6,983
Theme: ATH breakout vs pullback hold → continuation or deeper reset

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Price is holding above 7,018–7,028, a key level from yesterday, and now trading directly into ATH (~7,077.5).

This puts us in a high-stakes zone:

Holding above ATH → price discovery higher
Failing back below 7,018 → pullback into 6,990 → 6,950

The trend is strong, but we are at extension, not ideal chase territory.

Key idea:

Above 7,077 → continuation
Below 7,018 → pullback phase

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
7,028–7,018 — primary hold
6,990 — secondary support
6,950 — deeper pullback

🟥 Resistance
7,077.5 — ATH breakout
(Above = price discovery)

🟢 A+ Setup — ATH Breakout & Hold

Zone: Above 7,077.5

Trigger
Break and HOLD above ATH
No immediate rejection

Targets
Price discovery (trail)

Stop
Loss of 7,050

Notes:
👉 Only if it accepts
👉 Don’t chase the first push

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 7,028–7,018

Trigger
Pullback into support
Clean hold + higher low

Targets
7,077
→ extension

Stop
Acceptance below 6,990

Notes:
👉 Best trade location
👉 Buy value, not highs

🟢 B+ Setup — Deeper Pullback Long

Zone: 6,990

Trigger
Flush into support
Strong reaction

Targets
7,028
7,077

Stop
Acceptance below 6,970

Notes:
👉 Better R/R
👉 Requires patience

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 7,018

Zone: Below 7,018

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
6,990
6,950

Stop
Reclaim above 7,040

Notes:
👉 Clean rotation lower
👉 Opens deeper pullback

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,018 or 7,077
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No chasing ATH
🚫 No shorting strength early
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

You are at ATH → expect volatility
Best trades = pullback or confirmed breakout
If it’s not obvious → leave it
One clean trade → you’re done

SPY (5MIN)

Today, we are just watching short term structure & reacting. That's all we can do in intense trends like this. If we hold above 699.26, we hold higher. Fail below it & we trade back to the Daily ATH levels between 697.14/697.84. I love a pullback to these daily previous highs.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.