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4/13 Week Ahead Plan

4/12/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: Daily / 4-Hour / 1-Hour
Bias: Bearish Bullish (Structural Recovery)
Theme: Shift from "Lower High" scouting to "Higher Low" hunting after the ceasefire reclaim.

🧭 Market Context (Big Picture)

The narrative has shifted dramatically. While the previous weeks were focused on a potential 2022-style wash-out, the massive gap-up and reclaim of the Daily 50 SMA and 6760–6780 overhead supply suggests buyers have seized control. We are currently seeing a lockout rally characterized by light volume but zero selling pressure into structural extremes.

Crucially, /ES is now holding above the weekly 20 SMA and has supported perfectly off the weekly 50 SMA. The "single prints" (liquidity gaps) from Thursday’s ramp remained unfilled on Friday, despite weekend de-risking. This signals that sellers are weak and buyers are content holding positions at highs. The base case is no longer a crash to 6100, but rather finding a structural higher low to fuel a move toward all-time highs (7077).

Daily/4HR View

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

6848.75 — Friday's Low / Thursday Breakout point. Critical intraday pivot.
6801.00 — Daily 50 SMA / Top of the massive gap window. High probability bounce zone.
6778.36 — Previous weekly overhead supply (now support). Structural invalidation for the bull thesis.

🟥 Resistance

6888.00 — Local swing high. The "gatekeeper" to the expected move upper bound.
6916.00 — Weekly Expected Move Upper Bound. Target for momentum extension.
7043.00 — Major psychological resistance and previous monthly swing high.

🟢 A+ Setup — The "Gap-Fill" Reclaim

Zone: 6800 – 6825

Trigger: * A deeper pullback into the Daily 50 SMA (6801).

Look for a "look below and fail" of the 6800 level.
Confirmation: 15m/30m candle close back above 6810 with a VIX that is not expanding (VIX should stay suppressed despite the pullback).

Targets:

Target 1: 6848.75 (Friday Low)
Target 2: 6888(Local Highs)

Stop: 6770(Acceptance back inside the prior distribution).

Why: This offers the best risk/reward. Buying at 6863 is "chasing" the lockout. Buying the gap-fill confluence with the Daily 50 SMA aligns with the "Monthly Higher Low" thesis.

🔴 A+ Setup — The Hourly Trend Shift (Short)

Zone: 6845

Trigger:

Failure to hold Friday's low (6848).
Acceptance inside the single prints from Thursday.
Confirmation: A 1-hour candle close below 6845 followed by a weak retest that fails to reclaim it.

Targets:

Target 1: 6801 (Daily 50 SMA)
Target 2: 6780 (The "Big Reclaim" level)

Stop: 6870

Why: If /ES cannot hold the Thursday breakout point, it needs to hunt for deeper liquidity. This is a tactical short to play the "Daily Higher Low" development.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Weekly Close vs. Monthly Close: Watch if we can maintain the close above the Weekly 20 SMA.

2️⃣ Reaction at 6801: This is the most important price point of the week.

3️⃣ Volatility (VIX): If VIX breaks back above 22, the "Downside Road" is the priority.

4️⃣ Patience: Let the Monday/Tuesday volatility define the range before heavy positioning.

⏳ Best trading window: 9:45–11:15 AM EST.

🚫 No chasing into the Weekly Expected Move High (6916).

🚫 No "Donut Day" trades: If we are chopping in the 6850–6870 range with no volume, stay flat. Protect capital for the structural test at 6801 or 6

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.