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4/13 Trade Plan

4/13/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30M
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,850 / Bearish below 6,772
Theme: Lower high vs hold at 200DMA → compression before move

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Price is sitting between 6,850 resistance (Wednesday high) and 6,772 support (200DMA). We’ve already seen rejection near highs, and the question now is simple:

Does 6,850 turn into a lower high → rotation lower
Or do we reclaim and squeeze into 6,900 supply

The bigger picture hasn’t changed:

6,900 (100DMA) = heavy supply
6,700 = likely pullback destination if 200DMA fails

This is a patience day inside a range, not a chase environment.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,772 — 200DMA / hold
6,700 — major pullback

🟥 Resistance
6,850 — lower high / decision
6,900 — 100DMA supply

🔴 A+ Setup — Lower High Rejection (Primary)

Zone: 6,850

Trigger
Push into resistance
Failure to break / lower high forms

Targets
6,800
6,772

Stop
Acceptance above 6,870

Notes:
👉 This is the cleanest trade
👉 Aligns with current structure (failing highs)

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 200DMA

Zone: Below 6,772

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
6,720
6,700

Stop
Reclaim above 6,800

Notes:
👉 This is the real move
👉 Opens downside expansion

🟢 B+ Setup — Hold at 200DMA

Zone: 6,772

Trigger
Pullback into support
Clean hold

Targets
6,820
6,850

Stop
Acceptance below 6,750

Notes:
👉 Reaction trade only
👉 Lower confidence inside range

🟢 B+ Setup — Reclaim 6,850

Zone: Above 6,850

Trigger
Break and HOLD above

Targets
6,900

Stop
Loss of 6,820

Notes:
👉 Tight scalps only
👉 Heavy supply overhead

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 6,850 or 6,772
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No trading inside 6,800–6,830
🚫 No chasing into 6,900
🚫 No early entries

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a range between key levels → don’t force trades
Best trade = lower high or breakdown
Longs are secondary unless proven
One clean trade → you’re done

SPY (15MIN)

Gap down into our demand zone... no major changes to levels here. Look for the lower high rejection at the 100DMA & 678 today. I like that spot. If we reclaim the 100DMA, we are back into Friday highs. Below 670, we can see the real gap fill move towards 200DMA.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.