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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 4/9/26

4/9/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30Min
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,802 / Bearish below 6,775
Theme: Compression between 50DMA & 200DMA → wait for break or clean reaction

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Overnight, ES pushed to 6,847 and is now pulling back, sitting just under the 50DMA (~6,802) and above the 200DMA (~6,775).

This puts price in a tight range between two major moving averages, where direction is not confirmed yet. Holding above 6,775 keeps structure intact and opens continuation back toward 6,850 and higher supply, while losing it likely leads to a deeper pullback.

Until we break one side cleanly, this is a compression zone where patience matters most.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,775 — 200DMA / hold
6,704 — pullback demand

🟥 Resistance
6,802 — 50DMA
6,850 — supply
6,882–6,903 — major supply

🟢 A+ Setup — Breakout Above 50DMA

Zone: Above 6,802

Trigger
Break and HOLD above
Acceptance, not a wick

Targets
6,850
6,882–6,903

Stop
Loss of 6,780

Notes:
👉 This is the cleanest directional trade
👉 Break from compression = expansion

🟢 B+ Setup — Hold at 200DMA

Zone: 6,775

Trigger
Pullback into support
Holds clean

Targets
6,802
6,850

Stop
Acceptance below 6,750

Notes:
👉 Good continuation trade
👉 Lower confidence inside range

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 200DMA

Zone: Below 6,775

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
6,720
6,704

Stop
Reclaim above 6,800

Notes:
👉 Clean move if it goes
👉 Break of structure

🔴 B+ Setup — Rejection at Supply

Zone: 6,850 → 6,882

Trigger
Push into resistance
Clear rejection

Targets
6,802
6,775

Stop
Acceptance above 6,910

Notes:
👉 Reaction trade
👉 Not as clean unless extended

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 6,775 or 6,802
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No trading inside 6,780–6,800
🚫 No chasing between MAs
🚫 No early entries

🧠 Mindset Notes

You are in a compression zone → don’t force trades
A+ = break or breakdown only
B+ = reactions, size down mentally
One clean trade → you’re done

SPY (30MIN)

Wedged between two major spots. 100DMA above at 678.50 is keeping us down & will be heavy. Break above that & we can see a real squeezer.

If we fail to hold the 669.66 level, we will see downside towards the 200DMA. That will be the best short side opportunity to look for. Pullback to the 200DMA is also the best long opportunity.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.