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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 4/8/26

4/8/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,784 / Bearish below
Theme: Vertical rally into MAs → hold above 50DMA or unwind

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Overnight, ES pushed aggressively to 6,847, now sitting:

Above 50DMA (~6,808)
Below 100DMA (~6,870)

We are now in a tight decision zone between moving averages.

Key level:

6,784 = must-hold support

If this holds → continuation toward 100DMA (~6,870)
If it fails → unwind back into 6,695 demand

Key idea:

Above 6,784 → momentum intact
Below → pullback phase begins

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,784 — hold or fail
6,695 — major demand

🟥 Resistance
6,847 — overnight high
6,870 — 100DMA

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,784

Trigger
Pullback into support
Clean hold + higher low

Targets
6,847
6,870

Stop
Acceptance below 6,750

Notes:
👉 Above 50DMA = buyers in control
👉 This is the continuation trade

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown → Unwind

Zone: Below 6,784

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
6,720
6,695

Stop
Reclaim above 6,810

Notes:
👉 Loss of structure after vertical move
👉 Expect rotation lower

🟢 A+ Setup — Breakout into 100DMA

Zone: Above 6,847

Trigger
Break and HOLD above overnight high

Targets
6,870

Stop
Loss of 6,820

Notes:
👉 Only if it proves
👉 Don’t chase a wick

🔴 A+ Setup — Rejection at 100DMA

Zone: 6,870

Trigger
Push into 100DMA
Clear rejection

Targets
6,784

Stop
Acceptance above 6,900

Notes:
👉 Major HTF supply
👉 Expect reaction first

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 1HR / 30m acceptance at 6,784 or 6,847
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No chasing after overnight move
🚫 No trading middle
🚫 No early entries

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a hold or unwind day
Don’t chase strength into MAs
Let price come to you
One clean trade → you’re done

SPY (1 HR)

The Inverse H/S look we talked about played beautifully. That golden zone we had at 649.48/650.85 couldn't have been more spot on yesterday. Today, we are up into some major spots. The 680.86 & 100DMA will be tough to break above. We are also sitting right at some daily lows here between 676.57/675.79. Will have to wait to see the reactions at these levels & the 50DMA. If we fail the 50DMA, I could see us moving lower into 670/671 demand. I like that spot for pullback longs.

Below 670, we get the bigger drop into the 200DMA & 662 retest.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.