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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 4/7/26

4/7/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,619 / Bearish below
Theme: 20DMA reclaimed → hold for grind higher vs failure into void

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

We are holding above 6,611–6,619, a key 4HR pivot, and have reclaimed the 20DMA, which should now act as support.

This shifts the tone slightly:

Holding → grind higher toward 6,695–6,700 supply
But 6,700 remains major resistance until proven

Key idea:

6,619 = hold or fail
6,700 = reaction or breakout

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,619 — key hold level
6,563 — overnight low / first downside
6,517 — major demand

🟥 Resistance
6,695–6,700 — primary supply
6,750–6,765 — 200DMA

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Hold Long (Primary Bias)

Zone: 6,619

Trigger
Pullback into support
Holds clean + higher low

Targets
6,695
6,700

Stop
Acceptance below 6,600

Notes:
Reclaimed 20DMA = 👉 buyers have control until this fails

🔴 A+ Setup — Rejection at 6,700

Zone: 6,695–6,700

Trigger
Push into supply
Failure / rejection

Targets
6,619
6,563

Stop
Acceptance above 6,710

Notes:
Still a key level: 👉 Don’t assume breakout

🟢 A+ Setup — Breakout & Acceptance

Zone: Above 6,700

Trigger
Break and HOLD above
No immediate rejection

Targets
6,750

Stop
Loss of 6,670

Notes:
👉 Only if it proves 👉 Opens path to 200DMA

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown → Void

Zone: Below 6,619

Trigger
Loss of support
Failed reclaim

Targets
6,563
6,517

Stop
Reclaim above 6,650

Notes: 👉 Clean air below 👉 Can move fast

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 1HR / 30m acceptance at 6,619 or 6,700
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No trading inside 6,640–6,670
🚫 No chasing above 6,700
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

Bias is higher → but only while 6,619 holds
Best trades = pullback long or rejection at 6,700
If it’s not obvious → don’t touch it
One clean trade → you’re done

SPY (1 HR)

We are maintaining a major 4HR low at 656.80. Keep that level on watch. Previous day lows continued to hold 655.17 all day. If we maintain that zone, we continue higher. Target for now is the 200DMA above at 663. If we flip above the 200DMA, there is a lot of room above towards 675. Below 655, we see downside back into the 650 demand.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.