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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 4/6/26

4/6/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m / Daily
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,684 / Bearish below 6,563
Theme: Relief rally into stacked supply (20DMA + range high) → key battleground

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Market is pushing into a stacked supply zone (6,632–6,684), not just a single level.

This is the key shift from your plan:

It’s not just 6,637… it’s a zone that needs full acceptance

20DMA sits inside this zone
Range highs sit above it
This is where the real decision happens

Key idea (updated):

Acceptance above 6,684 → continuation opens
Failure anywhere in 6,632–6,684 → rotation lower

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,573 — first pullback level (scalp long area)
6,563 — breakdown trigger
6,517–6,483 — A++ demand (Vince’s highest conviction long)

🟥 Resistance
6,632–6,684 — primary supply zone (20DMA inside)
6,750–6,765 — higher supply (only if breakout holds)

🔴 A+ Setup — Supply Rejection (Primary)

Zone: 6,632 → 6,684

Trigger
Push into supply
Clear rejection / failure

Targets
6,573
6,517

Stop
Acceptance above 6,700

Notes (updated):
This is not just a level—it’s a zone of sellers
👉 You should expect chop + traps before resolution

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown → Acceleration

Zone: Below 6,563 → 6,483

Trigger
Break and hold below
No reclaim

Targets
6,517
6,483
→ then 6,353–6,387 if continuation

Stop
Reclaim above 6,600

Notes:
Below 6,483 = air pocket / acceleration

🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim & Expansion

Zone: Above 6,684

Trigger
Break and HOLD above 6,684
Acceptance above full supply zone

Targets
6,750

Stop
Loss of 6,650

Notes (important shift):
👉 Not just reclaiming 20DMA—
👉 Must clear entire supply zone

🟢 B+ Setup — Pullback Long (Lower Confidence)

Zone: 6,573

Trigger
Controlled pullback
Hold + reaction

Targets
6,632

Stop
Acceptance below 6,550

Notes (Vince influence):
This is a scalp, not conviction
👉 Real long = deeper levels

🟢 A+ Setup — Deep Pullback Long (Vince’s Edge)

Zone: 6,517 → 6,483

Trigger
Flush into demand
Strong reaction

Targets
6,573
6,632

Stop
Acceptance below 6,460

Notes (important):
👉 This is his favorite trade on the day
👉 You did NOT emphasize this enough before

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance inside or outside 6,632–6,684 zone
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing inside supply

⏳ Best window: 9:45–11:00AM

🚫 No trading inside 6,640–6,670 chop
🚫 No assuming breakout at 20DMA alone
🚫 No early entries inside supply

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a zone battle, not a single level
Best trades = rejection at supply or reaction at deep demand
Not every push is tradable → wait for clarity
One clean trade → you’re done

🛑 Kill Switch

Hit your trade → log it + walk away
No second trade
No “let me try again”

SPY (1 HR)

Need to see us reclaim and hold above 658.52 as well as the 20DMA for any real juice here... we may be able to see upside towards the 200DMA at 663.35. Fails at this supply keep us rangebound with pullbacks towards the 650/649 demand. Above 663, we can start eyeing that 673/675 zone. Fails below 649.48 likely bring us back into the 645/641 demand zone.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.