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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/6/26
3/6/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30Min
Bias: Bearish / Trend Following
Theme: Continued weakness toward the 200DMA following 6,850 rejection.
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
Price rejected 6,850 cleanly, confirming sellers control that supply zone.
We are now breaking down through the 6,800 psychological level, shifting focus lower. If buyers cannot reclaim 6,800, downside continuation toward PDL and the 200DMA (6,680) becomes the path of least resistance.
Market regime remains sell the bounce. Until 6,850 is reclaimed with acceptance, strength is likely just lower highs.
Breakdown sequence to watch:
6,800 → 6,770 → 6,740
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support
6,800 — Psychological pivot / breakdown level
6,770 — Structural support / PDL area
6,740 — HVN support
6,718 — Tuesday low / liquidity
6,680 — 200DMA
🟥 Resistance
6,850 — Major pivot / supply
6,900 — Psychological resistance
🔴 A+ Setup — Bearish Continuation
Zone: 6,800 - 6,790 Trigger:
Clear acceptance below 6,800 (30min candle close).
Failure to reclaim 6,800 on a retest (wick rejection).
VWAP staying below price.
Targets:
6,770 (T1)
6,740 (T2)
6,718 (Runner)
Stop:
Structural invalidation: 6,815 (reclaim of the breakdown candle).
Why this works: The failure at 6,850 trapped late longs. A breach of 6,800 triggers stop-loss cascades and forces momentum sellers into the tape.
🟢 A+ Setup — Bullish Mean Reversion
Zone: 6,855+ Trigger:
30min close above 6,850.
Shift in market structure (Higher Low) on lower timeframes.
Aggressive tape buying at the 6,850 reclaim.
Targets:
6,880
6,900
Stop:
6,835 (Drop back into the prior range).
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,800 / 6,770
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade only at structure extremes
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing
🚫 No emotional entries
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,850–6,857 decides direction.
Below = fade rallies (Daily 20 is capping the upside).
Above = shift long (target 6900 re-test).
Trade the rejection at 6893 or the reclaim of 6850.
Avoid the chop in between.
SPY (30 Min)
Very clean rejection of the 100 DMA and 683. Looking for downside continuation today if we can fail below 674. Very major level 674 on the SPY. Would not want to be too aggressive short into it, but if we can fail below 674, we should get downside continuation quite aggressively. Cautious of the bounce off PDL and cautious of the channel between yesterday's price action.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
