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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/5/26
3/5/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30Min
Bias: Neutral (Pivot Battle at 6850)
Theme: Daily 20 rejection; testing structural support at 6840.
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
Overnight Action: /ES found heavy supply at the Daily 20 EMA (6893), topping at 6890.50 before a steady decline.
Current State: Trading below the 6873 gap fill. We are currently pursuing the 6860.75 area.
Pivot: 6840.50 (ONL). This is the must-hold level for bulls to maintain the "higher low" structure from Wednesday.
Downside Risk: A clean break of 6840 opens the door to 6791, which was a major high-volume node on Wednesday.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support
6840/6850 — Overnight Low / Tuesday High. Primary Pivot.
6791/6800 — Wednesday Base / Psychological Support.
🟥 Resistance
6873 — Gap Fill / Minor Pivot.
6893/6900 — Daily 20 EMA / Overnight High. Heavy Supply.
6930 — Daily 50 SMA / Major Trend Breakout.
🟢 A+ Setup — The "Higher Low" Bounce
Zone: 6840 – 6847
Trigger: Washout of the Overnight Low (6840.50) followed by a 5-min close back above 6850.
Target 1: 6873 (Gap Fill)
Target 2: 6893 (Daily 20)
Stop: 15-min close below 6835.
Logic: Using the ONL as a springboard to trap early shorts and re-test the daily moving average.
🔴 A+ Setup — The "EMA Fade" or "Pivot Flush"
Zone: 6893 Rejection OR 6840 Breakdown
Trigger:
Fade: Failure to clear 6893 with a 5-min lower high.
Flush: 15-min candle close below 6840 + bearish backtest.
Targets: 6800, 6791.
Stop: 6855 (
Logic: Rejection at the Daily 20 confirms the downtrend remains the path of least resistance.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ HTF Close: Wait for the 10:00 AM candle to settle the "Opening Drive."
2️⃣ Reaction: Look for "speed" at 6840. Slow grinding is a no-trade.
3️⃣ VWAP: Long > VWAP | Short < VWAP.
4️⃣ Location: Avoid entries between 6860 and 6880 (No Man's Land).
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing
🚫 No emotional entries
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,850–6,857 decides direction.
Below = fade rallies (Daily 20 is capping the upside).
Above = shift long (target 6900 re-test).
Trade the rejection at 6893 or the reclaim of 6850.
Avoid the chop in between.
SPY (30 Min)
Looking for a hold over 682 and the daily 100 SMA.
If we can hold above the daily 20 and 686, we could see a squeeze towards that 690 high. Not too much room there, but a potential scalp entry point. The true breakout is over 690.
Below 682 and the daily 100, we would likely see a move lower towards 678.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
