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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/4/26
3/4/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Theme: V-recovery from Dec lows; watching 6,800 retest.
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
Market defended 6,771.50 (Dec lows) aggressively, sparking a vertical pre-market rally. Overnight, price pulled back from 6,849 to an ONL of 6,773.50, but buyers reclaimed 6,833 resistance. We topped out at 6,855 pre-market and are currently oscillating near 6,837.
While the impulse is bullish, we are testing heavy supply. 6,832–6,837 is the immediate shelf to hold. If this fails, a deeper pullback toward 6,791 is the high-probability retest area. If 6,837/6,847 holds as a floor, the gap fill toward 6,870 becomes the primary target.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support
6,800/6,804 — Primary pivot; prior resistance/reclaim zone.
6,771 — December Lows; major structural floor.
6,750 — September high; line in the sand.
🟥 Resistance
6,850/6,857 — Thursday LOD; immediate supply.
6,873 — Gap fill and Daily 20/100 SMA confluence.
6,930 — Major supply; ultimate upside target.
🟢 A+ Setup — Higher Low Retest
Zone: 6791– 6804
Trigger:
Clear acceptance OR rejection: Hold above 6791/6800 on pullback.
Timeframe close requirement: 15min candle close confirmation.
Confirmation condition: Bullish reaction (wicking or engulfing).
Targets:
6,833
6,855
Stop:
Structural invalidation level: 6785
High-probability trend continuation play.
🔴 A+ Setup — Pop and Fade
Zone: 6850 – 6857
Trigger:
Confirmation needed: 5min lower high at supply.
Structural shift: Failure to reclaim/hold 6,850.
Targets:
6832
6791
Stop:
Structural invalidation level: 6,865
Fading vertical exhaustion into heavy overhead supply.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional timeframe close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at key pivot
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade only at structure extremes
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing
🚫 No emotional entries
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,850–6,857 decides direction.
Below = fade rallies.
Above = shift long.
Trade the rejection.
Trade the reclaim.
Avoid the chop in between.
SPY (15 Min)
If we can reclaim the 100 SMA today, we should see a gap close towards that Monday close at 686.38. That would be a nice reclaim long above the previous day high and the Friday low as well.
A pullback long would be at 678, the Monday low. That would be a nice spot to get a clean retracement and a better long entry. I would not short if we are above 674.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
