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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/4/26

3/4/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Theme: V-recovery from Dec lows; watching 6,800 retest.

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.

🧭 Context

Market defended 6,771.50 (Dec lows) aggressively, sparking a vertical pre-market rally. Overnight, price pulled back from 6,849 to an ONL of 6,773.50, but buyers reclaimed 6,833 resistance. We topped out at 6,855 pre-market and are currently oscillating near 6,837.

While the impulse is bullish, we are testing heavy supply. 6,832–6,837 is the immediate shelf to hold. If this fails, a deeper pullback toward 6,791 is the high-probability retest area. If 6,837/6,847 holds as a floor, the gap fill toward 6,870 becomes the primary target.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

6,800/6,804 — Primary pivot; prior resistance/reclaim zone.
6,771 — December Lows; major structural floor.
6,750 — September high; line in the sand.

🟥 Resistance

6,850/6,857 — Thursday LOD; immediate supply.
6,873 — Gap fill and Daily 20/100 SMA confluence.
6,930 — Major supply; ultimate upside target.

🟢 A+ Setup — Higher Low Retest

Zone: 6791– 6804

Trigger:

Clear acceptance OR rejection: Hold above 6791/6800 on pullback.
Timeframe close requirement: 15min candle close confirmation.
Confirmation condition: Bullish reaction (wicking or engulfing).

Targets:

6,833
6,855

Stop:

Structural invalidation level: 6785
High-probability trend continuation play.

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop and Fade

Zone: 6850 – 6857

Trigger:

Confirmation needed: 5min lower high at supply.
Structural shift: Failure to reclaim/hold 6,850.

Targets:

6832
6791

Stop:

Structural invalidation level: 6,865
Fading vertical exhaustion into heavy overhead supply.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional timeframe close

2️⃣ Reaction quality at key pivot

3️⃣ VWAP alignment

4️⃣ Trade only at structure extremes

⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades

🚫 No chasing

🚫 No emotional entries

🧠 Mindset Notes

6,850–6,857 decides direction.
Below = fade rallies.
Above = shift long.
Trade the rejection.
Trade the reclaim.
Avoid the chop in between.

SPY (15 Min)

If we can reclaim the 100 SMA today, we should see a gap close towards that Monday close at 686.38. That would be a nice reclaim long above the previous day high and the Friday low as well.

A pullback long would be at 678, the Monday low. That would be a nice spot to get a clean retracement and a better long entry. I would not short if we are above 674.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.