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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/3/26
3/3/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Fade resistance unless reclaimed
Theme: Rally into supply → Lower high opportunity
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
Plan today is simple:
Look for a push higher into Monday LOD (6,802–6,811).
That zone is the pivot.
If price rallies into it and stalls, a lower high rejection sets up a clean short back toward 6,750 (September high).
If 6,750 breaks, momentum likely expands toward:
6,727
6,682
Daily 200DMA below that
However…
If we reclaim and hold above 6,802, the short thesis is invalid and the focus shifts higher toward 6,841–6,847.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support
6,750 — September high / key pivot
6,727 — Breakdown level
6,682 — Major support / near 200DMA
🟥 Resistance
6,802–6,811 — Monday LOD / supply pivot
6,841–6,847 — Friday lower day / heavy resistance
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,802–6,811 Rejection Short
Zone: 6,802–6,811
Trigger:
Push into level
Clear rejection on 15m
Lower high forms
No acceptance above
Targets:
6,750
6,727 (if momentum builds)
Stop:
15m acceptance above 6,811
This is the cleanest setup on the board.
🟢 A+ Setup Hold + Acceptance above 6791
Condition: Strong move and hold above 6791
Trigger:
15m close above
Pullback holds support
Buyers defend retest
Targets:
6802
6811
6841
Stop:
Loss of 6,802
This flips structure intraday.
🔻 Breakdown Scenario
If we lose 6,750 cleanly:
Expect acceleration toward 6,727 → 6,682
That opens the path toward the daily 200DMA.
Do not short directly into 6,750 without confirmation — wait for acceptance below.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,832–6,847
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade edges of the range only
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
⏳ Expect volatility
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing into major support
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,802–6,811 decides direction.
Below = fade rallies.
Above = shift long.
Trade the rejection.
Trade the reclaim.
Avoid the chop in between.
SPY (15 Min)
You have some very important demand between 671 and 674. I would first look for a move higher towards Monday LOD or Friday LOD for a lower high rejection today. If we reclaim Friday LOD and the 100 DMA, then we can look for longs once again just like yesterday.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
