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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/31/26

3/31/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 5M
Bias: Bearish → Bullish only above 6,490
Theme: Lower highs → fade strength unless key levels reclaim

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Overnight, ES pushed from 6,358 to 6,436 and is now slightly pulling back, holding near the highs. This suggests buyers are attempting to build higher lows, but we’re still trading below key supply. The main level to watch is 6,407 as support—if that holds, price can continue pushing into 6,454 and 6,483, with 6,490 as the only level that truly shifts momentum. Until then, this remains a prove-it environment, not confirmed strength, and failure back below 6,407 opens rotation back toward 6,350.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,400 — key level / gap area
6,350 — major daily level
6,387–6,407 — demand zone

🟥 Resistance
6,454 — first supply
6,490 — major reclaim level
6,560 — upside target

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade (Primary)

Zone: 6,455 → 6,490

Trigger
Push into resistance
Weak continuation / rejection

Targets
6,400
6,350

Stop Acceptance above 6,510

Notes: This remains the best trade:

Trend = sell strength

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown → Gap Fill

Zone: Below 6,400

Trigger
Loss of 6,400
Acceptance lower

Targets
6,350

Stop
Reclaim above 6,430

Notes: If this goes:

Gap fill + continuation lower

🟢 B+ Setup — Demand Hold Long

Zone: 6,400 / 6,360

Trigger
Flush into key levels
Strong reaction / buyers step in

Targets
6,454

Stop
Acceptance below 6,350

Notes: Counter-trend: Only if very obvious reaction

🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim Shift

Zone: Above 6,490

Trigger
Break and HOLD above 6,490

Targets
6,560

Stop
Loss of 6,454

Notes: Only place bias flips: Above here = real strength

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 5m acceptance at key levels
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No chasing longs into supply
🚫 No shorting directly into 6,400 demand
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

Trend is still down → don’t fight it early
Let price come to your levels → no forcing entries
One clean trade is enough
After your win → you are done

SPY (30min)

PDH causing morning failures here... another gap up on the market. Need to see a pullback into the 633 demand hold strong. If we fail back under 632.27, we continue towards the 626/627 demand. Only interest in upside is the gap to fill above 642.50.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.