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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/30/26

3/30/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m / 4HR
Bias: Bearish → Bullish only above 6,490
Theme: Bearish trend → demand reclaim vs lower high continuation

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Overnight:

Low: 6,360 → reclaim → pushing ~6,440

Price overshot major demand (6,387–6,407) and reclaimed → likely to defend early.

But zoom out:

20D < 200D (bearish shift)
Market still in downtrend → rallies = supply until proven otherwise

Key idea:

6407–6387 = major demand (don’t blindly short into it)
6454 = first decision level
6490 = key lower high / rejection zone

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,407–6,387 — major demand
6,360 — overnight low
6,300 — extension

🟥 Resistance
6,454 — first reclaim level
6,490 — major lower high / rejection
6,560 — next supply

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade (Primary)

Zone: 6,454 → 6,490

Trigger
Push into resistance
Weak continuation / rejection

Targets
6,407
6,360

Stop Acceptance above 6,510

Notes: This aligns with trend: Sell strength until proven otherwise

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Continuation

Zone: Below 6,387

Trigger
Break and HOLD below demand
Failed reclaim

Targets 6,300

Stop Reclaim above 6,420

Notes: If demand fails: Downside can accelerate quickly

🟢 B+ Setup — Demand Hold Long

Zone: 6,407–6,387

Trigger
Flush into demand
Buyers step in / hold

Targets
6,454
6,490

Stop Acceptance below 6,360

Notes: Counter-trend Only take if very obvious reaction

🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim Shift

Zone: Above 6,490

Trigger
Break and HOLD above 6,490
Acceptance above prior supply

Targets 6,560

Stop Loss of 6,454

Notes: This is the only place bias shifts: Above 6,490 = trend pause / potential reversal

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 6,407 / 6,454 / 6,490
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No shorting directly into 6,407 demand
🚫 No chasing longs in a downtrend
🚫 No trading middle

🧠 Mindset Notes

Trend is down → stop trying to catch every bounce
Best trades = sell the rip into supply
Demand can bounce → don’t force shorts into lows
One clean trade → you’re done

SPY (30min)

You are holding a massive demand between 633/635. I am expecting some defense there today.

If we reclaim the 638.59 level, I would assume we get upside into the 641/642.50.

Above 642.50, there is a gap to fill on the daily into 645 that I believe is a very possible move to see. Once that gap fills, rejections are then possible at that 645 level.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.