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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/26/26

3/26/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15M
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,700 / Bearish below 6,562
Theme: Ongoing range → waiting for acceptance vs rejection at 6,700

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Still no real change — market remains in a broad range (6,483 → 6,748).

Overnight we rotated lower:

6,642 → 6,572

That tells us:

Still range behavior, not trend
Price is rotating within value, not breaking out
6,700 remains the only level that shifts momentum

Key idea:

Nothing has changed — this is still:

Range → wait for acceptance or failure

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support
6,634 — range support
6,562 — failure trigger
6,520 — downside target

🟥 Resistance
6,684 — range high
6,700 — breakout / acceptance level
6,750–6,755 — 200DMA / supply

🟢 B+ Setup — Range Hold Long

Zone: 6,634

Trigger
Pullback into support
Buyers defend / higher low forms

Targets
6,684
6,700

Stop
Acceptance below 6,617

Notes: Same trade. If it holds, it rotates.

🟢 A+ Setup — Breakout into 200D

Zone: Above 6,700

Trigger
Break and HOLD above 6,700
No immediate rejection

Targets
6,750

Stop
Loss of 6,660

Notes: Only matters if it accepts.

🔴 A+ Setup — Failed Breakout (Trap Short)

Zone: 6,700 → rejection

Trigger
Push above 6,700
Immediate failure
Loss of 6,670

Targets
6,634
6,562

Stop
Acceptance above 6,720

Notes: Still the cleanest short.

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown → Unwind

Zone: Below 6,562

Trigger
Loss of 6,562
Failed reclaim

Targets
6,520

Stop
Reclaim above 6,600

Notes: If this breaks, range opens lower.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 6,634 or 6,700
2️⃣ Clean reactions (no chop entries)
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade extremes only

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No trading inside 6,650–6,670
🚫 No chasing breakouts without hold
🚫 No forcing trades mid-range

🧠 Mindset Notes

Nothing new → don’t create trades that aren’t there
Same range → same patience
One clean trade is enough
If it’s not obvious → sit

SPY (30min)

Gap fill is at 648.54... anything above that could still be bought up on this slow grind lower. If we fail below, we trade into 643/641 again. Below 641, down into 635. 200DMA rejections were perfect.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.