⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/24/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,617 / Bearish below 6,568
Theme: Post-news stabilization → demand test vs continuation into 200D

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

After yesterday’s news-driven spike into the 200D, price is now stabilizing and attempting to build structure.

We are holding inside:

• 6,568–6,617 demand zone

• Looking for a higher low to confirm acceptance

That tells us:

• Market is transitioning from impulse → structured auction

• Buyers need to defend this zone to stay in control

• If this fails → the entire move starts to unwind

Key idea:

This is no longer about the news… it’s about whether price can HOLD higher

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

• 6,617 — upper demand / pivot

• 6,568 — demand low

• 6,560 — breakdown trigger

• 6,470 — major downside target

🟥 Resistance

• 6,700 — supply / first major test

• 6,704 — breakout trigger

• 6,747 — 200DMA (macro level)

🟢 B+ Setup — Demand Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,617 → 6,568

Trigger

• Pullback into demand

• Higher low forms

• Buyers defend (no clean break below 6,568)

Targets

• 6,700

• 6,704

Stop

• Acceptance below 6,560

Notes: This is the trade you want. If the move is real → this zone holds clean and rotates higher.

🟢 A+ Setup — Breakout into 200D

Zone: Above 6,704

Trigger

• Break and HOLD above 6,704

• No immediate rejection

Targets

• 6,747 (200DMA)

• Extension if accepted

Stop

• Loss of 6,670

Notes: This is where things get real: Acceptance here = continuation day, not just bounce

🔴 A+ Setup — Failed Demand (Trap Short)

Zone: Loss of 6,568

Trigger

• Break below 6,568

• Failed reclaim

Targets

• 6,560

• 6,470

Stop

• Reclaim above 6,617

Notes: If this goes: Yesterday’s entire move starts getting unwound

This can accelerate fast

🔴 B+ Setup — Rejection at 6,700

Zone: 6,700 → 6,704

Trigger

• Push into supply

• Weak continuation

• Rejection back below

Targets

• 6,617

• 6,568

Stop

• Acceptance above 6,720

Notes: Still valid: First test of supply often rejects unless strong acceptance

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 6,617 or 6,700
2️⃣ Clean reaction at levels (no chop entries)
3️⃣ VWAP aligned (key for continuation)
4️⃣ Trade extremes only

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM

🚫 No trading inside 6,600–6,630 chop
🚫 No chasing breakouts without hold
🚫 No revenge trades

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a much better environment than yesterday—but only if:

• Demand actually holds

• Structure starts to behave normally

If it does:

You get clean rotations and real trades

If it doesn’t:

It turns back into noise fast

SPY (15min)

Looking for the higher low to form between 653.20/655.17. Below 650.85, we continue lower into 648. Reclaim that 200DMA for a move into 666.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

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