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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/2/26

3/2/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Sloppy / Range → Prefer rejection setups
Theme: December low hold → Prior lows as resistance

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.

🧭 Context

We made a new low into 6,748–6,768 overnight and swept liquidity near 6,751 (Feb 5 reference).

Key detail:
We held the December low (6,771.50 area) and bounced to 6,831 before rolling back under 6,814.

That tells us:

Liquidity below December lows has been tapped.
But we do not yet have higher timeframe confirmation of reversal.
We’re still trading heavy and sloppy.

Below here sits:

6,731
6,682
200DMA ~6,665

So yes — there is still room lower if structure fails again.

The big question now:
Was that a sweep for reversal… or just a pause before continuation?

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

6,771–6,748 — December low / liquidity sweep zone
6,731 — Next downside pivot
6,682 — Major support
6,665 — 200DMA

🟥 Resistance

6,814 — Intraday pivot (currently weak)
6,832 — Prior week low
6,841–6,847 — Heavy prior support → now resistance
6,873 — Gap fill

🔴 A+ Setup — Failed Bounce / Lower High (Primary)

If we cannot reclaim 6,814–6,832, this becomes a classic breakdown continuation.

Trigger:

Rejection at 6,814 or 6,832
Lower high forms
1HR close back below intraday pivot

Targets:

6,731
6,682
6,665 (200DMA)

Stop:

Clean acceptance above 6,847

The new low means rallies into resistance are more attractive than chasing breakdowns.

🟢 Tactical Long — Confirmed Higher Low Only

The December low held once.

That does not mean it holds again.

For longs, I now need:

Option 1:

Clear reclaim of 6,832–6,847
Acceptance above
Then target 6,873 gap fill

Option 2:

Second test of 6,750 zone
Strong absorption + aggressive reclaim

Without one of those, longs are counter-trend scalps.

⚠️ Support Note

Before:
Rejection of prior lows was the best setup.

Now:
We already flushed and made a lower low.

That increases odds of continuation unless we reclaim structure.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,832–6,847
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade edges of the range only

⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
⏳ Expect volatility
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing into major support

🧠 Mindset Notes

Do NOT short into 6,750 blindly (liquidity already hit).
Prefer shorting failed bounces.
Only long if structure is reclaimed — not because “December low held.”

The market just expanded range.
Now we trade reactions — not assumptions.

Let price prove whether that sweep was accumulation…
or just a pit stop before 6,665.

SPY (1 HR)

The cleanest trade here would be a retest rejection of the Friday LOD at 681.64. This would be a really nice rejection, also off the daily 100 SMA. This looks like the best trade of the day, in my opinion. If we do reclaim Friday LOD, then we would likely gap fill up towards 686. The downside target would be back into the January lows at 676.57. Below 676, it looks like we could trade lower to the December low at 671.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.