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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/20/26

3/20/20263 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above 6,639 / Bearish below 6,611
Theme: Early reclaim attempt → watching for breakout vs failed push

🧭 Context

Overnight low printed at 6,607, and we’ve now reclaimed 6,616 and pushed into 6,639.

That tells us:

Sellers failed to continue lower (for now)
Market is attempting early expansion higher

BUT… we’re not clean yet.
This current move can still turn into a failed breakout → pullback into 6,616 / 6,611.

30M CHART

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

6,616 — Intraday pivot (new key level)

6,611 — Demand / breakdown trigger

6,578–6,573 — downside target

🟥 Resistance

6,639 — Current high / breakout level

6,654–6,658 — major reclaim level

6,700–6,715 — extension

🟢 B+ Setup — Pullback Long (Cleaner Entry)

Zone: 6,616–6,611

Trigger

Pullback into 6,616 / 6,611
Buyers step in / holds as support

Targets

6,639
6,658

Stop

Acceptance below 6,600

Notes: This is the better long vs chasing highs. Let it come to you.

🟢 A+ Setup — Breakout Continuation

Zone: Above 6,639

Trigger

Break and hold above 6,639
No immediate rejection

Targets

6,654–6,658
6,680

Stop

Loss of 6,620

Notes: Only take if it accepts above, not a wick-through fake.

🔴 A+ Setup — Failed Breakout (Trap Short)

Zone: 6,639 → failure back below

Trigger

Break above 6,639
Immediate rejection
Loss of 6,631

Targets

6,616
6,611

Stop

Acceptance above 6,650

Notes: This is the “gotcha” move—don’t be the breakout buyer here.

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Continuation

Zone: Below 6,611

Trigger

Loss of 6,611
Failed reclaim

Targets

6,580
6,573

Stop

Reclaim above 6,631

Notes: Same as before—needs acceptance or it’s noise.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance (not wicks)
2️⃣ Reaction at 6,639 or 6,616
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade extremes only

⏳ Best window: 10–11:30AM
🚫 No chasing highs
🚫 No trading middle (6,620–6,630 chop)
🚫 No revenge after first loss

🧠 Mindset Notes

Market is trying to break out early, but hasn’t proven it yet.

6,639 → breakout trigger
6,616 → support test
6,611 → failure point

If breakout is real → it won’t come back deep.
If it pulls back hard → breakout likely fails.

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

Best trade right now?
👉 Either pullback long at 6,616
👉 Or confirmed breakout above 6,639

Everything else = you volunteering as liquidity again.

SPY (15Min)

Huge demand low here between 652.84/650.85. Could very well be another morning where we can't short into the pre market drop & we grind higher/sideways all day.

If we reclaim PDL, we will likely push higher into the 200DMA again. Not a bad scalp long thesis for the day if we see trapped shorts.

Above the 200DMA, we trade back to the 663 supply.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.