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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/19/26

3/19/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Bearish below 6,700 → Breakdown watch
Theme: Weak structure under 6,700 → Pressure building on demand

🧭 Context

Still trading below 6,700, so structure remains weak. Overnight low at 6,645, now sitting just above 6,631–6,616 demand, but the bounce is weak — we’re pressing, not rejecting.

All major MAs are overhead (200DMA 6,744)

4 HR CHART

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

6,631–6,616 — Key demand (last line before acceleration)
6,540 — October low

🟥 Resistance

6,700 — Pivot / failure zone
6,744 (200DMA) — Major resistance
6,765–6,775 — Supply above

🟢 B+ Setup — Demand Bounce (Quick)

Zone: 6,631–6,616

Trigger

Flush into support
Immediate reaction / buyers step in

Targets

6,670–6,700

Stop

Acceptance below 6,600

Notes:
Counter-trend — quick trade only, not a hold.

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade (Primary)

Zone: 6,700–6,715

Trigger

Push into resistance
Rejection / stall
No acceptance above

Targets

6,645
6,616

Stop

Acceptance above 6,715

Notes: Still the cleanest trade — sell strength into supply.

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Continuation

Zone: Below 6,630

Trigger

30min close below 6,630
Failed reclaim of the level

Targets

6616
6,583
6,541 (Aug range)

Stop

Reclaim above 6,630

Notes: This is a true breakdown continuation, not a chop trade. Once 6,630 goes, momentum should carry — let it break, then follow.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction at 6,700 or 6,616
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at extremes

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No shorting directly into 6,616

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a pressure test on support:

6,700 → fade zone
6,616 → decision point
Below → acceleration

If it doesn’t bounce clean… it’s probably breaking.

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

Only trade at defined levels
Match size & frequency to conditions
Eliminate urgency

SPY (30 Min)

Best short for me would be back at 666 & Thur LOD. If we can get a push back into that level then see fails, I like the re-entry short. We are too close to the 200DMA this morning to be shorting near the open without a pop higher.

Below the 200DMA & 659, you could see us fal into the 656 lows. Under that level, we are looking at 650 demand.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.