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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/18/26

3/19/20262 min read

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Range until FOMC
Theme: Overnight expansion → full retrace → compression at 6,800 pivot

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size & frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcedoffense.

🧭 Context

Overnight pushed 6,765 → 6,814, then fully retraced — now consolidating around 6,800.

This is balance, not trend, sitting in a 6,765–6,814 range into FOMC.

Expect chop and fakeouts pre-announcement. Real move likely comes after.

Key levels:

6,765 — confirmed demand
6,800 — pivot
6,814+ — needs acceptance for upside

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

6,795–6,800 — Pivot / higher-low zone
6,775–6,765 — Confirmed demand (overnight double bottom)
6,700 — Major support / 200DMA

🟥 Resistance

6,814 — Overnight high
6,850 — 20DMA / key breakout level

🟢A + Setup — Deeper Pullback Long

Zone: 6,775–6,765

Trigger

Controlled pullback
Buyers defend demand zone

Targets

6,800
6,814

Stop

Acceptance below 6,750

🟢B + Setup — Reclaim Long

Zone: 6,795–6,800

Trigger

Pullback holds the zone
Higher low forms on 30min
Buyers defend pivot

Targets

6,814
6,850 (20DMA)

Stop

Acceptance below 6,780

Logic Holding this level maintains the higher-low structure and opens continuation into resistance.

🔴 A + Setup — Range High Rejection

Zone: 6,814

Trigger

Push into overnight high
Rejection / failure to hold

Targets

6,780
6,765

Stop

Acceptance above 6,830

🔴 B + Setup — Breakdown to 200DMA

Zone: Below 6,765

Trigger

30min close below support
Failed reclaim

Targets

6,720
6,700 (200DMA)

Stop

Reclaim of 6,785

Logic Loss of overnight demand breaks structure and shifts control back to sellers.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,800 pivot / 6,765 demand
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade structure extremes only

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing breakouts pre-FOMC

🛡️ Execution Reminder

This is a pre-FOMC environment:

Expect fakeouts and chop
Real move likely comes after the announcement

SPY (30 Min)

The 674.60 level we had is spot on here... looks like that will be the line in the sand for SPY. This is the previous lows from Mon/Tues of last week. If we can reclaim, I love the opportunity on the upside towards the 20DMA & 680. Clean channel to trade within towards that 680.

If we fail 674, we are going to retest the 670 demand once again. We will need to continue to hold 670/671 to maintain bullish structure.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.