⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/17/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Range at 200DMA
Theme: Same range, but watching for expansion as M contract volume increases

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

• Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.

• Match size & frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.

• Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcedoffense.

🧭 Context

We’re essentially in the same position as yesterday — price is stuck within range and sitting right on the 200DMA (~6,739).

• HOD: 6,784

• Overnight Low: 6,715

• Current: ~6,739 (on 200DMA)

The key difference today is contract roll progression. As volume begins shifting into the M contract, we should start to see cleaner movement and better follow-through.

Until that happens, this is still a range-bound environment, meaning:

👉 Trade the extremes
👉 Be patient at the pivot
👉 Don’t force anything mid-range

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

• 6,700 — Key breakdown pivot

• 6,675–6,660 — Support zone

• 6,630 — Lower support

🟥 Resistance

• 200DMA (6,739) — Immediate pivot

• 6,765–6,785 — Range highs / HOD

• 6,850 — Major resistance

🟢 A+ Setup — 200DMA Reclaim Long

Zone: Above 6,739

Trigger

• 30min close above 200DMA

• Pullback holds as support

Targets

• 6,765

• 6,785 (range high)

Stop

• Loss of 6,720

Logic Reclaiming the 200DMA opens the door for a range expansion back to highs, especially if volume improves on the M contract.

🟢 B+ Setup — Support Bounce

Zone: 6,675–6,700

Trigger

• Controlled pullback

• Buyers defend

Targets

• 200DMA (6,739)

Stop

• Acceptance below 6,660

🔴 A+ Setup — 6,700 Breakdown

Zone: Below 6,700

Trigger

• 30min close below support

• Failed reclaim

Targets

• 6,675

• 6,660

Stop

• Reclaim of 6,720

Logic Failure below 6,700 confirms range breakdown and continuation lower.

🔴 B+ Setup — Range High Rejection

Zone: 6,765–6,785

Trigger

• Push into highs

• Rejection / failure to hold

Targets

• 6,720

• 6,700

Stop

• Acceptance above 6,800

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA / range extremes
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade edges only

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No forcing trades in chop

🛡️ Execution Reminder

This is still a range until proven otherwise.
If the M contract volume kicks in, that’s when you’ll get the real move.

Until then:
Be selective → take the A+ → skip the noise.

SPY (30 Min)

We need to clear the 670/671.30 highs. We need to see holds above Fri/Mon highs. If we get that, upside continuation is possible into 674. Above 674, more freedom towards 680. Let's see if Thur LOD holds strong at 665.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template

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