⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/16/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → trading levels during rollover
Theme: Neutral → trading levels during rollover

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

• Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.

• Match size & frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.

• Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcedoffense.

🧭 Context

We are currently in the futures contract roll window. The March (H) contract still carries the majority of volume, so many traders will continue referencing those levels.

However, I will be trading the June (M) contract going forward since Thinkorswim auto-rolls to the next contract, and the structure and levels are cleaner to track there.

Because of the roll, liquidity may be slightly thinner today and tomorrow, which can lead to:

• Less reliable mid-range price action

• Faster moves between levels

• Fewer quality setups

That’s not a bad thing — it simply means being more selective and trading less.

The market remains in a downward cycle from the 6,850 high, with resistance stacked above and key demand below.

Today’s plan focuses on two primary A+ opportunities: a pullback long at deeper demand or a clean rejection at resistance.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

• 6,706 — continuation pivot

• 6,656 — overnight low

• 6,640 — premier pullback demand

🟥 Resistance

• 6,788 — primary rejection zone

• 6,869 — secondary rejection level

🔴 A+ Setup — Resistance Rejection

Zone: 6,788

Trigger

• Push into resistance

• Clear rejection / failure to hold above the level

Targets

• 6,720

• 6,656

Stop

• Acceptance above 6,805

Logic Market remains in a short-term downtrend, so rallies into resistance remain high-probability fade areas.

🟢 A+ Setup — Deep Pullback Long (Premier Trade)

Zone: 6,640

Trigger

• Sharp pullback into the level

• Clear buyer reaction

Targets

• 6,706

• 6,750+

Stop

• Acceptance below 6,620

Logic This level represents the cleanest demand zone on the chart and offers the best risk-to-reward for a bounce.

🟢B+ Setup — Overnight Support Bounce

Zone: 6,656

Trigger

• Test of overnight low

• Buyers defend

Targets

• 6,706

Stop

• Acceptance below 6,640

🟢 B+ Setup — Continuation Pivot Long

Zone: 6,706

Trigger

• Pullback holds above level

• Buyers step in

Targets

• 6,750

Stop

• Loss of 6,690

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 15min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade structure extremes

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing into stacked resistance

🧠 Key idea today:
The market is squeezed between support at 6,718 and the 200DMA at 6,735.
Whichever side breaks with acceptance likely defines the morning move.

SPY (15Min)

Thur LOD reclaim is important today. We are bouncing near the 200DMA on SPY, down at 659/660.

If we reclaim Thur LOD, we should see the move into 670 & Friday HOD. Very possible scalp back towards channel high today. Over 670, next level is 674.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template

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