Unlock exclusive discounts on trading tools!
⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/13/26
3/13/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Bearish structure unless 200DMA reclaims
Theme: Testing the 200DMA pivot after overnight sweep lower
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size & frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcedoffense.
🧭 Context
We closed yesterday around 6,696 and initially tried to stabilize around 6,680 before selling further overnight. The overnight session printed a low at 6,634, with buyers stepping in around 6,644, producing a bounce back toward 6,693.
This places the market directly at the 200DMA (6,697), making this the key pivot for the session.
Structurally, the market is still in a short-term downtrend from the 6,850 high on March 10, so rallies into resistance should be treated cautiously unless we see strong reclaims.
Two main paths exist today:
Hold and reclaim the 200DMA → stabilization bounce
Reject below 6,680 → continuation lower toward the March 8 lows
If the breakdown occurs, the next meaningful support sits at 6,596–6,584, followed by the larger double-bottom area near 6,540..
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support
6,644–6,634 — Overnight demand
6,596–6,584 — March 8 liquidity zone
6,540 — Double bottom support
🟥 Resistance
6,697 — 200DMA pivot
6,763–6,777 — Key reclaim level
6,850 — 20DMA
🟢 B+ Setup — 200DMA Hold Long
Zone: 6,697–6,700
Trigger
Pullback holds above 200DMA
Buyers defend the level
Targets
6,725
6,760
Stop
Acceptance below 6,680
🟢 A+ Setup — Deep Pullback Long
Zone: 6,640
Trigger
Sharp pullback into support
Strong reaction from buyers
Targets
6,700
6,725
Stop
Break below 6,620
🟢 A+ Setup — Major Support Long
Zone: 6,583–6,584
Trigger
Test of March 8 support
Clear buyer reaction
Targets
6,640
6,700
Stop
Acceptance below 6,560
🔴 C+ Setup — Breakdown Retest Short
Zone: 6,693
Trigger
Break below support
Weak retest from underneath
Targets
6,660
6,640
Stop
Reclaim of 6,705
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade structure extremes only
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing moves
SPY (30 Min) No change
Potential lower highs between 674.76/676.11. Need to see us reclaim those Fri highs from last week. If we can, back towards the 20DMA is possible.
Lower high here drives us back down into the 670 demand.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
