⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/12/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Pivot around the 200DMA
Theme: Overnight move completed the expected rejection → now trading around 200DMA support

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

• Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.

• Match size & frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.

• Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcedoffense.

🧭 Context

Ironically, the trade I had been waiting for all week finally happened overnight.

Price rejected 6,760–6,766 and rotated straight down into 6,693, which was exactly the move I expected from a lower-high failure. Of course it happened at 6pm when I wasn’t even looking, which is probably for the best because that’s the kind of move that creates FOMO if you’re staring at the screen.

The good news is the analysis was right. The rejection level worked perfectly and price moved directly into the 200DMA zone, which was the target area for the pullback.

Now the market is sitting right on top of that pivot:

• 200DMA: 6,695

• Overnight low: ~6,705

• Overnight bounce: 6,760

• Current rotation: back toward 6,730

So the key question today is simple:
Does the 200DMA hold, or do we break it?

If the 6,693–6,715 demand holds, the market can stabilize and attempt another rotation back toward 6,777 → 6,850.

If the 200DMA breaks, the next meaningful liquidity pocket sits down near 6,596, which was the March 8th low.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

• 6,715–6,693 — Demand zone / 200DMA (6,695)

• 6,596 — March 8th low / next major support

🟥 Resistance

• 6,763–6,777 — Lower-high rejection zone

• 6,850 — 20DMA

• 6,894 — 100DMA

• 6,913 — 50DMA

🟢 A+ Setup — 200DMA Support Long

Zone: 6,693–6,715

Trigger

• Pullback holds the 200DMA

• Buyers defend the level

• 30min higher low forms

Targets

• 6,760

• 6,777

Stop

• 30min acceptance below 6,693

🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim Continuation

Zone: Above 6,777

Trigger

• 30min close above 6,777

• Pullback holds as support

Targets

• 6,820

• 6,850 (20DMA)

Stop

• Loss of 6,760

🔴 A+ Setup — 200DMA Breakdown

Zone: Below 6,693

Trigger

• 30min close below 200DMA

• Failed reclaim

Targets

• 6,650

• 6,596 (March 8 low)

Stop

• Reclaim of 6,715

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA (6,695)
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade structure extremes only

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing moves

SPY (30 Min)

Potential lower highs between 674.76/676.11. Need to see us reclaim those Fri highs from last week. If we can, back towards the 20DMA is possible.

Lower high here drives us back down into the 670 demand.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template

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