⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/11/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Neutral → Range until CPI catalyst
Theme: Holding value above 6,777 while trapped below 6,850

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

• Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.

• Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.

• Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.

🧭 Context

Overnight price stayed largely inside value, rotating between 6,768 and 6,822. The key level continues to be 6,777, which has held multiple times and is acting as the immediate pivot.

We briefly dipped to 6,763, then recovered back into 6,777, suggesting buyers are defending this area. There also appears to be secondary support around 6,765.

On the upside, the market is capped by 6,852, keeping price inside a clear range ahead of CPI, which is likely the catalyst for expansion.

Above that zone sit the daily moving averages:

• 20DMA: 6,862

• 100DMA: 6,894

• 50DMA: 6,917

Below the range, the 200DMA at 6,692 remains the larger structural magnet if support breaks.

For now this remains a range environment — meaning the edge is still buying support or selling resistance, not trading the middle.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support

• 6,777 — Primary pivot / range support

• 6,765 — Overnight support

• 6,700–6,692 — 200DMA / structural support

🟥 Resistance

• 6,822 — Overnight high

• 6,852 — Range resistance

• 6,862 — 20DMA

• 6,894 — 100DMA

• 6,917 — 50DMA

🟢 A+ Setup — Range Support Long

Zone: 6,765–6,777

Trigger

• Controlled pullback into the zone

• 30min hold above 6,765

• Buyers defend support

Targets

• 6,822

• 6,850

Stop

• 30min acceptance below 6,765

This trade assumes the overnight range structure holds.

🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim Breakout

Zone: Above 6,852

Trigger

• 30min close above resistance

• Retest holds

Targets

• 6,862 (20DMA)

• 6,894 (100DMA)

• 6,917 (50DMA)

Stop

• Loss of 6,822

🔴 A+ Setup — Range Breakdown

Zone: Below 6,765

Trigger

• 30min close below support

• Failed reclaim

Targets

• 6,720

• 6,700–6,692 (200DMA)

Stop

• Reclaim of 6,777

🧠 Structural Edge (Sniper Entry Concept)

The key structure today is the liquidity sweep → reclaim pattern.

Best entries come from:

1️⃣ Sweep of a key level
2️⃣ Immediate reclaim
3️⃣ Higher low forming above the sweep

That sequence often marks short-term exhaustion of sellers and creates the highest-probability continuation entries.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,777 pivot
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade range extremes

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing CPI spikes

SPY (30 Min)

Look for pullback longs at 675 today. This would also be Thursday lows and Friday highs. If we fail below 674.60 and the overnight low, we'll see downside towards 670 again for a potential pullback long. Heavy supply starts again at 683 and the daily 100 and daily 20.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template

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