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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/10/26
3/10/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Constructive above 6,771
Theme: Liquidity sweep at December low → watching for higher low continuation
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
Overnight we printed a 6,818 high, then sold off into 6,762, briefly sweeping below the December low (6,771) before buyers stepped in aggressively. That sweep likely cleared liquidity sitting under the level.
Price then rebounded to the overnight high at 6,832 and is now rotating between 6,818 and ~6,800.
The structural shift here is important:
The market swept the key level and reclaimed it, which often sets up a higher-low continuation pattern rather than immediate breakdown.
As long as 6,771 holds, the market has room to build higher toward 6,840–6,849 and eventually test the daily moving averages overhead.
A clean loss of 6,771, however, invalidates the sweep and likely rotates price toward the 200DMA at 6,688.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support
6,771 — December low / structural pivot
6,762 — Overnight liquidity sweep
6,688 — 200DMA
🟥 Resistance
6,832 — Overnight high
6,840–6,849 — Reclaim pivot
6,872 — 20DMA
6,892 — 100DMA
6,921 — 50DMA
🟢 A+ Setup — Sweep & Hold Long (Primary)
Zone: 6,771–6,780
Trigger
Pullback into the zone
Buyers defend 6,771 again
30min higher low forms
Targets
6,818
6,832
6,849
Stop
30min acceptance below 6,771
Why this works: The overnight move likely cleared liquidity under the December low. If that sweep holds, trapped shorts often fuel the bounce higher.
🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim Momentum Long
Zone: Above 6,849
Trigger
30min close above 6,849
Retest holds as support
Targets
6,872 (20DMA)
6,892 (100DMA)
6,921 (50DMA)
Stop
Loss of 6,832
🔴 A+ Setup — Failed Sweep Breakdown
Zone: Below 6,771
Trigger
30min close below the level
Failed reclaim
Targets
6,720
6,688 (200DMA)
Stop
Reclaim of 6,780
🧠 Structural Edge (Sniper Entry Concept)
The key structure today is the liquidity sweep → reclaim pattern.
Best entries come from:
1️⃣ Sweep of a key level
2️⃣ Immediate reclaim
3️⃣ Higher low forming above the sweep
That sequence often marks short-term exhaustion of sellers and creates the highest-probability continuation entries.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 30min close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,771 pivot
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade structure extremes
⏳ Best window:10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing momentum
SPY (30 Min)
Look for pullback longs at 675 today. This would also be Thursday lows and Friday highs. If we fail below 674.60 and the overnight low, we'll see downside towards 670 again for a potential pullback long. Heavy supply starts again at 683 and the daily 100 and daily 20.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
