⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/9/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Reactive at extremes
Theme: Reclaim worked → Now earn continuation or rotate back

🧭 Context

Friday’s reclaim above the 100DMA was clean and paid exactly as expected. No drama, no guessing — just structure doing its job.

That move grinded straight into 6,969–6,981, which is not some random number. This is real supply, and price is already telling us it won’t be easy.

We’re now back inside the wide ES channel, which means:
• Continuation must be earned
• Failures rotate fast
• Chasing gets punished

Your edge here is patience.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,920 — First higher-low attempt / balance check

• 6,886 — Mid-channel support

• 6,868–6,863 — 100DMA (key downside magnet)

• 6,800 — Range low

• 6,750 — Breakdown risk level

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,969–6,981 — Major rejection zone

• 7,030 — Only if 6,981 clears cleanly

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,920 — First higher-low attempt / balance check

• 6,886 — Mid-channel support

• 6,868–6,863 — 100DMA (key downside magnet)

• 6,800 — Range low

• 6,750 — Breakdown risk level

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,969–6,981 — Major rejection zone

• 7,030 — Only if 6,981 clears cleanly

🔴 Secondary Setup — 100DMA Fade (Range Trade)

Zone: 6,868–6,870
Trigger:

• Push into 100DMA

• Immediate rejection

• Lower high forms

• Delta divergence at highs

Targets:

• 6,814

• 6,800

Stop:

• Acceptance above 6,870

Notes:
This is a profit-taker’s short, not an aggression trade.
If rejection is weak or sloppy → pass.

🟢 Secondary Setup — Higher-Low Confirmation Long (Conditional)

Zone: 6,920 → 6,886
Trigger:

• Pullback holds

• Higher low structure forms

• Delta stabilizes and turns positive

• No immediate rejection from VWAP

Targets:

• 6,969–6,981

• Extension only if strong: 7,030

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,886

Notes:
You are not front-running this.
Let the higher low form first — then act.

🟡 Range Warning

If price chops between 6,920 and 6,969:
• Reduce size
• Faster targets
• Or stand down

Mid-range trades = emotional tax.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candles (no overlap garbage)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with the trade
4️⃣ Reaction at the level — not in between

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No forcing trades just because Friday worked.

🧠 Mindset Notes

Friday was execution.
Today is discipline.

You already proved the read.
Now prove you can wait.

The market will either:
• Build higher lows and continue
• Or fail and rotate back to the 100DMA

You don’t need to predict which.
You just need to react correctly.

SPY (30Min)

A pretty trapped move within 684 demand & 694 supply... a clean 10 point range that continues to trade on the SPY.

I would personally wait for a pullback to 684 or a hold above 694 for longs within this channel.

Below 684, you can look for downside towards 682. Above 694 towards 700.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template