⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/6/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15 Min
Bias: Neutral → Binary at 100DMA
Theme: Major defense → Decision day → Reaction over prediction

🧭 Context

Big picture first:
We just saw a massive defense at the Dec lows / Sept highs (6,756–6,771) — that level did exactly what it was supposed to do. Add to that the reclaim of Thursday morning lows at 6,800, and you’ve got real buyers finally stepping in.

Now comes the test.

Today’s entire session revolves around 6,868–6,870 (100DMA).
This is the line between:
• Stabilization → rotation higher
• Or rejection → range continuation

No rushing trades today. Let the market tip its hand.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,756–6,771 — Major structural low (must-hold)

• 6,814–6,801 — Reclaimed balance / intraday demand

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,868–6,863 — 100DMA (decision zone)

• 6,920 — Thursday HOD / upside magnet

• 6,970 — Stretch supply (only if momentum builds)

🟢 A+ Setup — 100DMA Reclaim Long (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance above 6,870
Trigger:

• Clean reclaim of 100DMA

• Holds above on retest

• Delta turns positive

• No immediate rejection wicks

Targets:

• 6,920

• Extension: 6,970 (only if trend strength is obvious)

Stop:

• Acceptance back below 6,863

Notes:
This is the best long on the board.
If the market wants higher, this is where it proves it.

🔴 Secondary Setup — 100DMA Fade (Range Trade)

Zone: 6,868–6,870
Trigger:

• Push into 100DMA

• Immediate rejection

• Lower high forms

• Delta divergence at highs

Targets:

• 6,814

• 6,800

Stop:

• Acceptance above 6,870

Notes:
This is a profit-taker’s short, not an aggression trade.
If rejection is weak or sloppy → pass.

🟡 Range Scenario (Very Possible)

If price:
• Rejects 6,870
• Holds above 6,800

Then expect chop between 6,800–6,870.

That’s:
👉 Smaller size
👉 Faster exits
👉 Or no trades at all

Flat is a position.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candles (no overlap junk)
2️⃣ Delta confirms intent
3️⃣ VWAP aligns with trade direction
4️⃣ Acceptance or rejection at the actual levels

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range boredom trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a decision day, not a volume day.
Your job is not to guess next week — it’s to listen today.

Let the 100DMA speak.
You just translate.

SPY (30Min)

Strong hold at the December lows on SPY... very important spot & a good reaction for now.

We need to see SPY reclaim the Wednesday lows at 681.76 today. If we can hold above that, we should trade into the Tuesday lows at 684.

A reclaim of 684 would be a nice spot for longs towards the 50DMA & Thur HOD at 687.54. Above that, we are right back into the 692 & 20DMA.

If we fail to reclaim the Tues LOD at 684, we could see failures that keep us within the range of Thursdays action.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template