⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/5/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15 Min
Bias: Neutral → Reactive only
Theme: Choppy channel, fake edges, patience wins

🧭 Context

This tape is… rough.
Yesterday’s move lower was clean, but let’s not pretend anything actually broke. ES is still stuck in a range, just wearing a slightly uglier outfit.

Notable:
• ES is outperforming NQ
• XLP going vertical = defensive tone
• Channel remains intact
• Edge is thin, traps are thick

This is not a “be a hero” environment.
This is a wait-for-the-market-to-show-its-hand environment.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,886 — Minor reaction level

• 6,868–6,863 — 100DMA (major decision zone)

• 6,846 — Breakdown acceleration level

• 6,814 — January balance

• 6,770 — January lows / real downside

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,969–6,981 — 20DMA / heavy supply

• 7,030–7,043 — Stretch targets only (don’t count on it)

🟡 Environment Read (Important)

Shorting into the 100DMA is dumb money behavior.
Longing off the 100DMA without confirmation is hopeful money behavior.

Neither pays consistently.

Let price prove something.

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Below 100DMA (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,863
Trigger:

• Clean break of 100DMA

• Failed reclaim

• Momentum expands

• Delta stays negative

Targets:

• 6,846

• 6,814

• Extension: 6,770 (only if tape accelerates)

Stop:

• Acceptance back above 6,868

Notes:
This is the only downside trade I care about.
No chop shorts. No early entries.

🟢 Secondary Setup — Channel Low Reaction Long (Low Conviction)

Zone: 6,868–6,863
Trigger:

• Strong rejection wicks

• Absorption at lows

• Delta stabilizes

• No follow-through selling

Targets:

• 6,886

• 6,925 (maybe)

Stop:

• Clean break below 6,863

Notes:
This is tactical, quick, and size-light.
If it feels forced — it is.

🟢 Best Long Scenario — Reclaim Strength (Cleanest Bull Case)

Zone: Acceptance above 50DMA → 6,969
Trigger:

• Reclaim of 50DMA

• Continuation through 6,969

• Strong closes, no upper wicks

Targets:

• 6,981

• Extension: 7,030 (only with momentum)

Stop:

• Loss of 6,950 area

Notes:
This is the only long I’d actually like.
Everything else is noise.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candles (no overlap garbage)
2️⃣ Delta agrees
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade at levels, not boredom zones

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 If it’s mid-range → do nothing. That is the trade.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This market is baiting activity.
Your edge is selectivity, not participation.

No forcing trades.
No saving bad ideas.
Let others bleed in chop.

You show up when the market earns it.

SPY (15 Min)

681.76/682 lows are big here. If we see fails below, we should pick up the downside pressure into the 680 & possibly the Jan lows at 676. This would also be the 100DMA level.

As of now, we are reclaiming the Tuesday LOD at 684. If we hold that, we stay higher possibly towards the channel high. Really no direction on SPY here.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template