⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/4/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15 Min
Bias: Neutral → Lean Bearish at supply
Theme: 20DMA test → Reaction > direction

🧭 Context

We are trading back up into the 20DMA, which puts ES at a decision point — not a chase zone.

This is a reaction environment, not a momentum environment.

Primary idea:
👉 Watch how price behaves into the 6,970–6,980 zone
👉 Failure = rotation lower
👉 Reclaim = upside opens, but only with acceptance

Market personality:
• Push into moving averages
• Stall / reject at known supply
• Clean rotations when levels fail

Price action at the 20DMA decides the session.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,918–6,898 — Near-term support / decision zone

• 6,863–6,847 — 100DMA / major downside magnet

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,969–6,981 — 20DMA / rejection zone

• 7,030–7,043 — Upper supply / stretch targets only

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade Short (Primary)

Zone: 6,969–6,981
Trigger:

• Push into 20DMA

• Momentum stalls

• Rejection wicks form

• Delta flips negative

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,920 (50DMA area)

• Extension: 6,898

• If weakness builds: 6,863 (100DMA)

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 6,981

Notes:
This is the highest-quality idea today.
Do not short late — let price come into you.

🟢 Secondary Setup — Reclaim Long (Conditional)

Zone: Acceptance above 6,981
Trigger:

• Hold above 6,981

• Strong closes, no upper wicks

• Delta stays positive

• VWAP flips supportive

Targets:

• 7,030

• Extension: 7,043 (only if momentum expands)

Stop:

• Loss of 6,969

Notes:
This is a reclaim trade, not a breakout chase.
If acceptance is sloppy — skip it.

🔴 Downside Continuation — Breakdown Play

Zone: Acceptance below 6,900
Trigger:

• Failure of near-term support

• Acceleration lower

• No responsive buying

Targets:

• 6,863

• 6,847

Stop:

• Reclaim back above 6,900

Notes:
Don’t front-run this. Let the market show weakness first.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candles (no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Rejection or acceptance at levels, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades. No boredom clicks.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a patience day.
Let the 20DMA speak first.

One clean trade is enough.
If structure is unclear — stand down.

Trade reactions.
Ignore noise.

SPY (15 Min)

Holding this area again... 50DMA also stepping up down there. Tough spot to break below for now. I would be interested to see what happens as we trade higher into the Friday high & the intra-day rejection spot between 693.43/694.21.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template