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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/4/26
2/4/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15 Min
Bias: Neutral → Lean Bearish at supply
Theme: 20DMA test → Reaction > direction
🧭 Context
We are trading back up into the 20DMA, which puts ES at a decision point — not a chase zone.
This is a reaction environment, not a momentum environment.
Primary idea:
👉 Watch how price behaves into the 6,970–6,980 zone
👉 Failure = rotation lower
👉 Reclaim = upside opens, but only with acceptance
Market personality:
• Push into moving averages
• Stall / reject at known supply
• Clean rotations when levels fail
Price action at the 20DMA decides the session.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,918–6,898 — Near-term support / decision zone
6,863–6,847 — 100DMA / major downside magnet
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,969–6,981 — 20DMA / rejection zone
7,030–7,043 — Upper supply / stretch targets only
🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade Short (Primary)
Zone: 6,969–6,981
Trigger:
Push into 20DMA
Momentum stalls
Rejection wicks form
Delta flips negative
VWAP caps price
Targets:
6,920 (50DMA area)
Extension: 6,898
If weakness builds: 6,863 (100DMA)
Stop:
Clean acceptance above 6,981
Notes:
This is the highest-quality idea today.
Do not short late — let price come into you.
🟢 Secondary Setup — Reclaim Long (Conditional)
Zone: Acceptance above 6,981
Trigger:
Hold above 6,981
Strong closes, no upper wicks
Delta stays positive
VWAP flips supportive
Targets:
7,030
Extension: 7,043 (only if momentum expands)
Stop:
Loss of 6,969
Notes:
This is a reclaim trade, not a breakout chase.
If acceptance is sloppy — skip it.
🔴 Downside Continuation — Breakdown Play
Zone: Acceptance below 6,900
Trigger:
Failure of near-term support
Acceleration lower
No responsive buying
Targets:
6,863
6,847
Stop:
Reclaim back above 6,900
Notes:
Don’t front-run this. Let the market show weakness first.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candles (no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Rejection or acceptance at levels, not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades. No boredom clicks.
🧠 Mindset Notes
This is a patience day.
Let the 20DMA speak first.
One clean trade is enough.
If structure is unclear — stand down.
Trade reactions.
Ignore noise.
SPY (15 Min)
Holding this area again... 50DMA also stepping up down there. Tough spot to break below for now. I would be interested to see what happens as we trade higher into the Friday high & the intra-day rejection spot between 693.43/694.21.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
