⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/3/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15 Min
Bias: Bullish pullbacks → Reactive on failures
Theme: Momentum intact → Buy structure, not highs

🧭 Context

The open above Thur/Fri lows was the key tell yesterday — that discrepancy mattered, and price respected it.
Upside strength was early and fast, which usually means today is about pullback quality, not chasing.

This is a continuation environment, but only if structure holds.

Primary idea:
👉 Buy pullbacks into proven demand
👉 Let price come in
👉 If momentum fails, step aside — don’t argue

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,991–6,994 — December monthly highs / first pullback zone

• 6,969 — Secondary demand / rotation level

• 20DMA — Momentum test (key)

• 6,918–6,900 — Deeper support if momentum cracks

• 6,860 / 6,850 — 50DMA area (trend damage below)

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,029

• 7,043 — Recent highs / upside stretch

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Continuation Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,991–6,994
Trigger:

• Controlled pullback

• Holding structure (no impulsive sell)

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• VWAP supportive

Targets:

• 7,029

• 7,043

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,991

Notes:
This is the ideal trade today. Let the market breathe.

🟢 Secondary Setup — Deeper Pullback Long

Zone: 6,969 / 20DMA
Trigger:

• Clean test

• Absorption at lows

• Momentum re-engages

Targets:

• 6,991

• Extension to highs if strength returns

Stop:

• Acceptance below the 20DMA

Notes:
This is where real buyers should show up. If they don’t — don’t force it.

🟡 Bearish Scenarios (Tactical Only)

• Below 6,991 → 6,969 = rotation, not a trend shift

• Below the 20DMA = momentum loss → downside can accelerate toward the 50DMA

This is tight and tactical, not a conviction short environment.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing. No forcing continuation.

🧠 Mindset Notes

Momentum is earned, not assumed.
Your job today is patience, not prediction.

Let the pullback come.
Trade the level.
Protect the win.

SPY (15 Min)

This 694 pullback is the money spot today. Would be awesome to see a clean retest long setup there. Below 694, we need to be looking for the pullback to the 20DMA. That will be an interesting spot as well.

699 is the level to beat for ATH..

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template