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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/26/26
2/26/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Bullish above 6,931 → Cautious into 6,980–7,000
Theme: Clean 20/50DMA hold → Pullback opportunity
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
We finally got the sustained hold above 6,931 yesterday — a level we’ve tracked for weeks.
That reclaim of the 20/50DMA triggered a clean late-session expansion higher.
Now the focus shifts:
👉 Best opportunity = pullback to 6,931
If that level holds again, it confirms the shift in structure.
However, overhead sits heavy supply at 6,980–7,000 — a zone that has rejected price multiple times before. Not the place to press aggressive longs blindly.
Lose 6,931 and we slide back into the lower channel, opening room toward 6,900.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,925–6,931 — 20/50DMA support pivot
6,900 — Channel support
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,980 — Near-term resistance
7,000 — Major psychological / channel high
🟢 A+ Setup — 6,931 Pullback Long (Primary)
Zone: Retest of 6,931
Trigger:
Controlled pullback
1HR hold above level
Buyers defend with strong reaction
Targets:
6,980
7,000
Stop:
Clean 1HR close below 6,931
This is currently the cleanest long on the board.
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,931 Failure Short
Zone: Acceptance below 6,931
Trigger:
1HR close below
Failed reclaim
Weak reaction into 20DMA
Targets:
6,900
Stop:
Reclaim of 6,931
Lose this level and structure weakens quickly.
⚠️ Caution Zone
Between 6,980–7,000:
Multiple prior rejections.
Expect volatility.
Not ideal for fresh aggressive longs.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,931
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at structure pivots
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
⏳ Patience for pullback entries
🚫 No chasing into 7,000
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,931 is the battlefield.
Hold it → continuation.
Lose it → back into channel.
Good structure gives opportunity.
Chasing highs gives regret.
SPY (1 HR)
Pullback long at the 689/690 zone would be ideal today. Perfect retest of the double top highs & breakout point.
The 696.50/698 zone above will be tough. Would prefer to have a lower entry before heading towards those highs.
If we fail 689, watch the 20/50DMA below as support.
Below 686.26 the downside comes back in.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
