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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/25/26
2/25/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Constructive above 6,900 → Bullish shift above 6,931
Theme: Higher low at 100DMA → Channel high attempt
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
We’re seeing a higher low forming at 6,900, aligned with the 100DMA.
That’s constructive.
This sets up a potential push toward the top of the channel — but confirmation is required.
The real pivot today:
👉 6,931 (20/50DMA)
If we can reclaim it and turn it into support, structure shifts and continuation becomes valid.
Below 6,900 + 100DMA, the bullish structure fails and we rotate back toward channel lows.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,900 — Higher low / 100DMA alignment
6,833 — Channel support
6,814 / 6,800 — Major demand
6,770 — December low
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,925–6,931 — 20/50DMA reclaim pivot
🟢 A+ Setup — 6,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)
Zone: Acceptance above 6,931
Trigger:
Strong 1HR close above
Pullback holds as support
Buyers defend dips
Targets:
6,952
6,980
7,000 (channel high)
Stop:
Loss of 6,931 after reclaim
Turning 20/50DMA into support is the confirmation.
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,900 Failure Short
Zone: Acceptance below 6,900
Trigger:
1HR close below
Failed reclaim of 100DMA
Lower high
Targets:
6,833
6,814 / 6,800
Stop:
Reclaim of 6,931
Lose 6,900 and structure weakens quickly.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at key pivots
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
⏳ Best trades occur on confirmed breaks
🚫 No chasing inside 6,900–6,931
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,900 defines structure.
6,931 defines momentum.
Hold above → channel high attempt.
Fail below → back to channel lows.
Let the level confirm — then execute.
SPY (1 HR)
Higher low forming above the Thur/Fri highs of 2 weeks back at 686.26. This is a good setup for this breakout to attempt today. If we can hold over 690, I think you see a push into the 692.
We are holding the 50DMA, let's see if the 20DMA holds as well.
Fails back below the 686.26 would result in downside.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
