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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/24/26
2/24/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral inside channel → Breakdown required
Theme: Trap below Friday lows → SPY 100DMA alignment → Tight range
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
We extended the NTZ after ES trapped below Friday’s lows yesterday.
That trap was largely influenced by SPY holding its 100DMA.
That SPY 100DMA aligns closely with ES 6,833.
I am cautious shorting directly into 6,833.
Below that, we’re only ~20 points from major demand at 6,814/6,800 — too tight to force trades inside this channel.
This remains compression until 6,800 breaks clean.
Key pivots:
👉 6,931 (20/50DMA)
👉 6,800 (major demand floor)
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,833 — SPY 100DMA alignment
6,814 / 6,800 — Major demand zone
6,770 — December low
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,925–6,931 — 20/50DMA major supply
🟢 A+ Setup — 6,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)
Zone: Acceptance above 6,931
Trigger:
Strong 1HR close above
Buyers defend pullbacks
Holding above 20/50DMA
Targets:
6,960
7,000
Stop:
Loss of 6,931 after reclaim
Market upside only becomes valid above the 20/50DMA.
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,800 Breakdown Short
Zone: Acceptance below 6,800
Trigger:
1HR close below
Failed reclaim
Expansion in momentum
Targets:
6,770
6,750
Stop:
Reclaim of 6,814
This is the level that opens continuation.
⚠️ Caution Zone
Between 6,833 and 6,800 is tight, choppy range.
Not enough room to press size.
Avoid getting cute inside the channel.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ SPY confirms structure
4️⃣ Trade only at range extremes
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
⏳ Best trades occur on confirmed breaks
🚫 No forcing action inside 6,833–6,800
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,931 shifts structure bullish.
6,800 shifts structure bearish.
Inside the channel → protect capital.
Wait for expansion, then execute.
SPY (1 HR)
100DMA was the exact LOD as we talked about mid-day yesterday. Very clean hold. Wouldn't look to long off this level, I would be more cautious about shorting into it.
Fails below that 100DMA could be the spark we need for the next leg lower into 676. Would be looking for that today.
If we maintain, we stay within the channel towards the supply highs again.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
