Unlock exclusive discounts on trading tools!
⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/23/26
2/23/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral inside range → Breakout required
Theme: Channel compression → Patience until expansion
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
Not much new — we’ve been trading inside the same channel since last Wednesday.
This is compression.
And compression punishes impatience.
Last week’s mistake was giving back profits in lackluster action.
That cannot repeat.
Today’s pivots are clear:
👉 6,931 (20/50DMA)
👉 6,847 (range support)
Above 6,931 → structure cleans up toward 7,000
Below 6,847 → rotation back into 6,800 demand
This is a wait-for-break session.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,847 — Range support pivot
6,814 / 6,800 — Major demand zone
6,770 — December low
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,925–6,931 — 20/50DMA major supply
🟢 A+ Setup — 6,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)
Zone: Acceptance above 6,931
Trigger:
Strong push and hold
30-min close above
Buyers defend pullbacks
Targets:
6,960
7,000
Stop:
Loss of 6,931 after reclaim
Above the 20/50DMA, price action should clean up.
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,847 Breakdown Short
Zone: Acceptance below 6,847
Trigger:
30-min close below
Failed reclaim
Lower high
Targets:
6,814
6,800
Extension: 6,770
Stop:
Reclaim of 6,863–6,870 zone
Below 6,847 opens the door to demand.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at the edges of the range
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No forcing action inside the channel
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,931 breaks → momentum long.
6,847 breaks → continuation short.
Inside the range → do nothing.
Patience pays.
Impatience gives it back.
SPY (30min)
We remain within the SPY channel. The 690 high continues to be the smack down. 20DMA up here difficult to break back above.
A flip back over that 20DMA would be a great spot to look long towards the 695 highs.
Below Friday LOD we have the 100DMA at 680, a very possible bounce spot. Below that 680, you would likely see the 676 demand..
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
