⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/2/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15 Min
Bias: Neutral → Lean bullish above key reclaims
Theme: DMA defense → Reclaim & rotate → Fade strength, not weakness

🧭 Context

Overnight did its job: clean move down into the 100DMA at 6,863, and buyers showed up exactly where they should.

This morning’s key development:
👉 Reclaim of Friday lows + 50DMA above 6,918

That reclaim matters. As long as ES holds above it, shorting back into Thurs/Fri lows is low-quality thinking.

We are still inside the Thurs–Friday channel, which means:
• Rotations > trends
• Reactions > predictions
• Pop & fade setups > breakdown chasing

Let price come to levels.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,898–6,918 — Friday lows / 50DMA / primary long zone

• 6,863–6,847 — 100DMA / major downside defense

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,966 — Interim resistance

• 6,994–7,002 — 20DMA / psychological 7,000 supply

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,898–6,918
Trigger:

• Controlled pullback into demand

• Buyers defend the 50DMA

• Delta stabilizes or flips positive

• VWAP holds below price or flattens

Targets:

• 6,966

• 6,994

• Stretch: 7,002 if momentum builds

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,898

Notes:
This is the cleanest trade today if we stay above the reclaim.
No breakdown = no short.

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade Short (Conditional)

Zone: 6,994–7,002
Trigger:

• Push into supply

• Immediate rejection or failed acceptance

• Delta divergence / absorption at highs

• VWAP caps price from below

Targets:

• 6,966

• 6,918

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 7,002

Notes:
Fade strength, not lows.
This is where risk/reward flips.

🟡 Breakdown Short (Only If Structure Fails)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,898
Trigger:

• Failed reclaim of 50DMA

• Lower high forms

• Delta turns negative

• VWAP above price

Targets:

• 6,863 (100DMA)

• Extension: 6,847

Stop:

• Reclaim back above 6,898

Notes:
This is conditional, not the base case.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
4️⃣ Absorption at the level, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing. No impatience trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

The market already told you where real buyers live.
Respect that.

Trade reactions.
Fade excess.
One clean idea > five forced ones.

And yeah — baby account stays CLOSED early.
You already know how this movie ends when you ignore that.

Stay sharp.

SPY (15 Min)

The golden zone on SPY continues to hold. We briefly broke below it overnight and have since reclaimed back above. We’re now back over Thursday’s and Friday’s lows from last week.

I’d be cautious shorting back into those lows today — odds favor more rotation inside the SPY channel. A move toward the midpoint near the 20DMA around 690.50 is possible.

The middle of this range is low-quality trade territory. Best to stay patient and avoid forcing anything in between.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template